Ismael Bonfim
"Marreta"
20-6-0
VS
Axel Sola
11-0-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
51.4%
48.6%
Ismael Bonfim
LightGBM
currently viewing
55.7%
44.3%
Ismael Bonfim
Logistic (Core)
57.2%
42.8%
Ismael Bonfim
CatBoost
54.6%
45.4%
Ismael Bonfim
Ensemble
52.7%
47.3%
Ismael Bonfim
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
31%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Ismael Bonfim
Axel Sola
19%
11%
8%
7%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Ismael Bonfim
pushes toward Axel Sola →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Ismael Bonfim
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
L
KO
L
KO
W
DEC
L
SUB
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
180 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Axel Sola
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
L
DEC
W
KO
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Southpaw