King Green
32-17-1
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney
"T. Wrecks"
17-7-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
King Green
52.8% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
30%
Decision
38%
KO / TKO
32%
Submission
Decision30.4%
KO / TKO37.9%
Submission31.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 168.7%
Round 222.8%
Round 3+8.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 70% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
King Green
Terrance McKinney
Net striking dominance
Matchup
13%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
8%
Age
King Green
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
8%
Head absorption rate
King Green
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
King Green
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Terrance McKinney
6%
Striking accuracy
King Green
5%
Last 2 avg fight time
Terrance McKinney
4%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Terrance McKinney
3%
Distance strike defense
Terrance McKinney
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Terrance McKinney
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
King Green
2%
← pushes toward King Green pushes toward Terrance McKinney →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

King Green

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W SUB
W KO
W DEC
L KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Terrance McKinney

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
L SUB
W SUB
W KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Switch