Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
17-8-0
VS
Lone'er Kavanagh
9-1-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
30.8%
69.2%
Lone'er Kavanagh
LightGBM
33.8%
66.2%
Lone'er Kavanagh
Logistic (Core)
currently viewing
45.1%
54.9%
Lone'er Kavanagh
CatBoost
34.8%
65.2%
Lone'er Kavanagh
Ensemble
31.4%
68.6%
Lone'er Kavanagh
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
60%
Decision
26%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 40%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Brandon Royval
Lone'er Kavanagh
13%
7%
7%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Brandon Royval
pushes toward Lone'er Kavanagh →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Brandon Royval
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
L
KO
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
173 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Lone'er Kavanagh
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
W
DEC
L
KO
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Orthodox