Carli Judice
"Crispy"
5-2-0
VS
Jeisla Chaves
"A Braba"
7-0-0
Thin UFC data
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
65.5%
34.5%
Carli Judice
LightGBM
currently viewing
63.0%
37.0%
Carli Judice
Logistic (Core)
62.5%
37.5%
Carli Judice
CatBoost
63.7%
36.3%
Carli Judice
Ensemble
67.5%
32.5%
Carli Judice
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
65%
Decision
19%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 35%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Carli Judice
Jeisla Chaves
12%
10%
9%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Carli Judice
pushes toward Jeisla Chaves →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Carli Judice
Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
50%
Avg Duration
10.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
L
DEC
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
173 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Jeisla Chaves
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
173 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Carli Judice
ADVANTAGE
Jeisla Chaves
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate