Lawrence Lui
"Lok Yin"
7-1-0
VS
Hector Santiago
6-1-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
66.1%
33.9%
Lawrence Lui
LightGBM
65.8%
34.2%
Lawrence Lui
Logistic (Core)
62.2%
37.8%
Lawrence Lui
CatBoost
64.2%
35.8%
Lawrence Lui
Ensemble
currently viewing
67.5%
32.5%
Lawrence Lui
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
66.4%
33.6%
Lawrence Lui
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
67.4%
32.6%
Lawrence Lui
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
66.7%
33.3%
Lawrence Lui
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
64.3%
35.7%
Lawrence Lui
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
64.6%
35.4%
Lawrence Lui
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
53%
Decision
28%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 47%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Lawrence Lui
Hector Santiago
16%
9%
9%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Lawrence Lui
pushes toward Hector Santiago →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Lawrence Lui
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
DEC
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Hector Santiago
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
Orthodox