Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall

Zach Reese

"Savage"

10-2-0

VS

2026-10-31

UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. Kropschot

Middleweight

Mickey Gall

7-7-0

Fight Insights

44%

Mickey Gall

Fighters who absorb 4.1+ significant strikes per minute have won 44% of their UFC fights (930-1190)

Mickey Gall: absorbs 4.7/min

43%

Mickey Gall

Fighters who are returning from a layoff of a year or more have won 43% of their UFC fights (624-820)

Mickey Gall: 23 months since last fight

65%

Mickey Gall

Fighters who are fighting at this weight for the first time in the UFC facing an opponent who is coming off a KO/TKO loss have won 65% of their UFC fights (79-42)

62%

Matchup

Fights where a fighter who attempts 1.2+ submissions per 15 minutes faces an opponent who has been knocked out 2+ times in the UFC end inside the distance 62% of the time (vs 52% of all UFC fights, n=370)

41%

Division & format

Middleweight fights go the distance 41% of the time (vs 48% of all UFC fights, n=1074)

Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown — these describe the past, they are not predictions.

What Every Model Says

Main + Market currently viewing

Logistic (Core)

Recency-Heavy · CatBoost

Recency-Heavy · Ensemble

Recency-Heavy · LightGBM

Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)

Recency-Heavy · XGBoost

With Odds · CatBoost

With Odds · Ensemble

With Odds · LightGBM

With Odds · Logistic (Core)

With Odds · XGBoost

Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.

How It Ends

38%

Decision

36%

KO / TKO

26%

Submission

Decision38.2%

KO / TKO36.2%

Submission25.7%

How long it lasts 3-round fight

28%

Goes the distance

fair +254

72%

Ends in a finish

fair -254

Rounds line	Over	Under
0.5	82% -454	18% +454
1.5	51% -105	49% +105
2.5	33% +200	67% -200

When it ends

Round 142%

Round 218%

Round 311%

Goes the distance28%

"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4% (log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.

Why XGBoost leans this way

Zach Reese

Mickey Gall

Net striking dominance

Matchup +0.78

12%

Strike rate delta r1 to r3

Mickey Gall -1.18

12%

Age

Mickey Gall 34.8 yrs

9%

Strike rate delta r1 to r3

Zach Reese -1.17

9%

Avg takedowns attempted

Mickey Gall 2.26

5%

Head absorption rate

Zach Reese 59%

5%

Avg takedowns attempted

Zach Reese 2.20

4%

Distance strike defense

Zach Reese 58%

4%

Head-strike accuracy edge

Matchup -4%

3%

Strikes absorbed/min

Mickey Gall 4.25

3%

Last 2 avg fight time

Zach Reese 487.50

3%

Head absorption rate

Mickey Gall 70%

3%

Fights per year

Zach Reese 3.45

3%

Body strikes absorbed per min

Zach Reese 0.98

2%

← pushes toward Zach Reese pushes toward Mickey Gall →

Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Head-to-Head Stats

Zach Reese

ADVANTAGE

Mickey Gall

Striking Accuracy

50.7%

+1.3%

49.4%

Strikes Landed/Min

3.21

+0.45

3.65

Strikes Absorbed/Min

3.03

+1.23

4.25

Striking Defense

48.3%

+4.6%

52.9%

Takedown Accuracy

48.7%

+12.0%

36.8%

Takedown Defense

58.6%

+1.1%

57.5%

Knockdowns/Fight

0.13

+0.02

0.15

Avg Control Time (sec)

73.01

+3.36

69.65

Strikes Per Round

15.64

+1.07

16.71

Head Strike %

55.4%

+13.5%

68.9%

Body Strike %

26.1%

+6.6%

19.5%

Leg Strike %

18.5%

+6.9%

11.6%

Last 5 Win Rate

40.0%

+20.0%

20.0%

Last 5 Finish Rate

20.0%

EVEN

20.0%