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Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
17-2-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Middleweight
Yousri Belgaroui
9-3-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Caio Borralho 'The Natural'
50.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
45.6% 54.4%
Yousri Belgaroui
LightGBM
48.1% 51.9%
Yousri Belgaroui
Logistic (Core) currently viewing
50.3% 49.7%
Caio Borralho
CatBoost
41.7% 58.3%
Yousri Belgaroui
Ensemble
44.9% 55.1%
Yousri Belgaroui
No Age · CatBoost
39.8% 60.2%
Yousri Belgaroui
No Age · Ensemble
37.2% 62.8%
Yousri Belgaroui
No Age · LightGBM
40.1% 59.9%
Yousri Belgaroui
No Age · Logistic (Core)
41.8% 58.2%
Yousri Belgaroui
No Age · XGBoost
42.0% 58.0%
Yousri Belgaroui
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
41.2% 58.8%
Yousri Belgaroui
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
42.0% 58.0%
Yousri Belgaroui
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
40.7% 59.3%
Yousri Belgaroui
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
51.3% 48.7%
Caio Borralho
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
50.7% 49.3%
Caio Borralho
With Odds · CatBoost
45.2% 54.8%
Yousri Belgaroui
With Odds · Ensemble
44.6% 55.4%
Yousri Belgaroui
With Odds · LightGBM
49.2% 50.8%
Yousri Belgaroui
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
50.3% 49.7%
Caio Borralho
With Odds · XGBoost
45.9% 54.1%
Yousri Belgaroui
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
52%
Decision
36%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
Decision51.7%
KO / TKO36.1%
Submission12.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.9%
Round 230.3%
Round 3+19.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 48% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Caio Borralho
Yousri Belgaroui
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.78
16%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Caio Borralho -0.97
10%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 35
7%
Age
Yousri Belgaroui 34.5 yrs
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Yousri Belgaroui +0.71
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +7
5%
Age
Caio Borralho 33.8 yrs
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Yousri Belgaroui 2.10
3%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.03
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -6%
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Yousri Belgaroui 0.33
3%
Head absorption rate
Yousri Belgaroui 65%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Caio Borralho 2.49
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Yousri Belgaroui 1.62
2%
← pushes toward Caio Borralho pushes toward Yousri Belgaroui →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Caio Borralho

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
17.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Yousri Belgaroui

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
9.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 198 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Caio Borralho
ADVANTAGE
Yousri Belgaroui
Striking Accuracy
51.3%
+6.1%
57.4%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.36
+2.18
5.53
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.89
+0.79
2.10
Striking Defense
58.4%
+4.0%
62.3%
Takedown Accuracy
36.6%
+4.3%
40.9%
Takedown Defense
69.2%
+9.6%
59.6%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.29
+0.31
0.60
Avg Control Time (sec)
81.32
+16.59
64.72
Strikes Per Round
16.25
+6.55
22.80
Head Strike %
63.6%
+3.6%
59.9%
Body Strike %
19.1%
+3.7%
22.8%
Leg Strike %
17.3%
+0.1%
17.2%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
+20.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+80.0%
100.0%