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Lone'er Kavanagh
9-1-0
VS
2026-10-24
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Flyweight
Ramazan Temirov
"Temurlan"
19-3-0
WITH ODDS · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Lone'er Kavanagh
61.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
44.3% 55.7%
Ramazan Temirov
LightGBM
38.8% 61.2%
Ramazan Temirov
Logistic (Core)
51.9% 48.1%
Lone'er Kavanagh
CatBoost
40.0% 60.0%
Ramazan Temirov
Ensemble
44.1% 55.9%
Ramazan Temirov
No Age · CatBoost
42.1% 57.9%
Ramazan Temirov
No Age · Ensemble
45.6% 54.4%
Ramazan Temirov
No Age · LightGBM
42.2% 57.8%
Ramazan Temirov
No Age · Logistic (Core)
47.2% 52.8%
Ramazan Temirov
No Age · XGBoost
41.2% 58.8%
Ramazan Temirov
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
38.9% 61.1%
Ramazan Temirov
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
41.2% 58.8%
Ramazan Temirov
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
35.6% 64.4%
Ramazan Temirov
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
52.2% 47.8%
Lone'er Kavanagh
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
39.2% 60.8%
Ramazan Temirov
With Odds · CatBoost
53.5% 46.5%
Lone'er Kavanagh
With Odds · Ensemble
64.9% 35.1%
Lone'er Kavanagh
With Odds · LightGBM
57.4% 42.6%
Lone'er Kavanagh
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
51.9% 48.1%
Lone'er Kavanagh
With Odds · XGBoost currently viewing
61.9% 38.1%
Lone'er Kavanagh
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
57%
Decision
30%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision56.9%
KO / TKO30.3%
Submission12.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 148.8%
Round 230.8%
Round 3+20.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 43% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Lone'er Kavanagh
Ramazan Temirov
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Lone'er Kavanagh +0.99
8%
Age
Lone'er Kavanagh 27.4 yrs
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -12
8%
Elo momentum edge
Matchup -84
5%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
4%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Lone'er Kavanagh 10
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Ramazan Temirov 0.22
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ramazan Temirov 2.28
4%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.32
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Lone'er Kavanagh 2.89
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ramazan Temirov +0.46
4%
Fights per year
Ramazan Temirov 1.68
4%
Distance strike defense
Ramazan Temirov 64%
3%
Fights in last 2 years
Lone'er Kavanagh 5
3%
← pushes toward Lone'er Kavanagh pushes toward Ramazan Temirov →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Lone'er Kavanagh

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
L KO
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Ramazan Temirov

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
67%
Avg Duration
7.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
W KO
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 160 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Lone'er Kavanagh
ADVANTAGE
Ramazan Temirov
Striking Accuracy
49.1%
+6.0%
43.1%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.83
+0.09
3.74
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.78
+0.63
3.15
Striking Defense
52.9%
+6.2%
59.0%
Takedown Accuracy
41.0%
+2.4%
38.6%
Takedown Defense
73.2%
+4.0%
69.2%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.24
+0.56
0.80
Avg Control Time (sec)
83.45
+24.29
59.16
Strikes Per Round
18.25
+0.92
17.33
Head Strike %
59.8%
+9.3%
69.1%
Body Strike %
23.2%
+4.1%
19.0%
Leg Strike %
17.1%
+5.2%
11.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+40.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+66.7%
66.7%