Losene Keita
"Black Panther"
16-1-0
VS
Muhammad Naimov
"Hillman"
13-3-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
50.3%
49.7%
Losene Keita
LightGBM
46.6%
53.4%
Muhammad Naimov
Logistic (Core)
50.5%
49.5%
Losene Keita
CatBoost
48.6%
51.4%
Muhammad Naimov
Ensemble
55.5%
44.5%
Losene Keita
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
50.2%
49.8%
Losene Keita
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
53.0%
47.0%
Losene Keita
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
51.3%
48.7%
Losene Keita
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
currently viewing
49.8%
50.2%
Muhammad Naimov
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
53.7%
46.3%
Losene Keita
With Odds · CatBoost
77.6%
22.4%
Losene Keita
With Odds · Ensemble
78.7%
21.3%
Losene Keita
With Odds · LightGBM
78.2%
21.8%
Losene Keita
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
50.5%
49.5%
Losene Keita
With Odds · XGBoost
79.2%
20.8%
Losene Keita
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
59%
Decision
28%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 41%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Losene Keita
Muhammad Naimov
17%
12%
8%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Losene Keita
pushes toward Muhammad Naimov →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Losene Keita
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
L
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Muhammad Naimov
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
KO
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
SUB
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
178 cm
Stance:
Orthodox