Chris Padilla
"Taco"
17-6-0
VS
Nasrat Haqparast
18-6-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
70.7%
29.3%
Chris Padilla
LightGBM
66.8%
33.2%
Chris Padilla
Logistic (Core)
68.9%
31.1%
Chris Padilla
CatBoost
68.1%
31.9%
Chris Padilla
Ensemble
currently viewing
73.3%
26.7%
Chris Padilla
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
55%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Chris Padilla
Nasrat Haqparast
17%
10%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Chris Padilla
pushes toward Nasrat Haqparast →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Chris Padilla
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
D
DEC
W
KO
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Nasrat Haqparast
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
L
KO
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Southpaw