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Anthony Wint
"Bow Down"
6-0-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Heavyweight
Lucas Armand
"Do or Die"
6-0-0
Thin UFC data
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Anthony Wint 'Bow Down'
55.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
61.6% 38.4%
Anthony Wint
LightGBM currently viewing
55.1% 44.9%
Anthony Wint
Logistic (Core)
56.2% 43.8%
Anthony Wint
CatBoost
56.5% 43.5%
Anthony Wint
Ensemble
55.8% 44.2%
Anthony Wint
No Age · CatBoost
59.5% 40.5%
Anthony Wint
No Age · Ensemble
57.7% 42.3%
Anthony Wint
No Age · LightGBM
58.5% 41.5%
Anthony Wint
No Age · Logistic (Core)
55.6% 44.4%
Anthony Wint
No Age · XGBoost
56.6% 43.4%
Anthony Wint
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
57.6% 42.4%
Anthony Wint
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
58.8% 41.2%
Anthony Wint
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
59.7% 40.3%
Anthony Wint
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
56.3% 43.7%
Anthony Wint
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
58.5% 41.5%
Anthony Wint
With Odds · CatBoost
51.2% 48.8%
Anthony Wint
With Odds · Ensemble
50.0% 50.0%
Anthony Wint
With Odds · LightGBM
50.9% 49.1%
Anthony Wint
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
56.2% 43.8%
Anthony Wint
With Odds · XGBoost
50.2% 49.8%
Anthony Wint
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
33%
Decision
37%
KO / TKO
31%
Submission
Decision32.6%
KO / TKO36.8%
Submission30.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 161.3%
Round 227.0%
Round 3+11.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 67% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Anthony Wint
Lucas Armand
Avg takedowns attempted
Anthony Wint 2.31
9%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Anthony Wint 6
7%
Age
Lucas Armand 30.9 yrs
6%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 24
6%
Strikes absorbed/min
Anthony Wint 2.24
6%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Anthony Wint 0.43
6%
Age
Anthony Wint 31.1 yrs
6%
Last 2 avg fight time
Anthony Wint 269
5%
Round 1 strike output
Anthony Wint 11.19
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Lucas Armand
4%
Distance strike defense
Anthony Wint 61%
4%
Submission threat edge
Matchup 0.22
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup 0.17
3%
Fights per year
Anthony Wint 0
3%
← pushes toward Anthony Wint pushes toward Lucas Armand →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Anthony Wint

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
4.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 238 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Lucas Armand

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 264 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A
Head-to-Head Stats
Anthony Wint
ADVANTAGE
Lucas Armand
Striking Accuracy
45.4%
+45.4%
0.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.44
+2.44
0.00
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.24
+2.24
0.00
Striking Defense
55.7%
+55.7%
0.0%
Takedown Accuracy
36.7%
+36.7%
0.0%
Takedown Defense
62.5%
+62.5%
0.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.17
+0.17
0.00
Avg Control Time (sec)
88.35
+88.35
0.00
Strikes Per Round
13.48
+13.48
0.00
Head Strike %
62.3%
+62.3%
0.0%
Body Strike %
20.7%
+20.7%
0.0%
Leg Strike %
17.0%
+17.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+100.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
100.0%
+100.0%
0.0%