MarQuel Mederos
11-1-0
VS
Mason Jones
"The Dragon"
17-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
55.2%
44.8%
MarQuel Mederos
LightGBM
currently viewing
53.7%
46.3%
MarQuel Mederos
Logistic (Core)
50.0%
50.0%
Mason Jones
CatBoost
56.2%
43.8%
MarQuel Mederos
Ensemble
56.9%
43.1%
MarQuel Mederos
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
65%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 35%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
MarQuel Mederos
Mason Jones
23%
11%
8%
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward MarQuel Mederos
pushes toward Mason Jones →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
MarQuel Mederos
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
D
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Mason Jones
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
DEC
W
KO
W
DEC
L
DEC
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox