Cory Sandhagen
18-6-0
VS
Mario Bautista
16-3-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
48.9%
51.1%
Mario Bautista
LightGBM
currently viewing
49.8%
50.2%
Mario Bautista
Logistic (Core)
55.5%
44.5%
Cory Sandhagen
CatBoost
47.7%
52.3%
Mario Bautista
Ensemble
55.8%
44.2%
Cory Sandhagen
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
62%
Decision
20%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 38%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Cory Sandhagen
Mario Bautista
14%
9%
8%
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Cory Sandhagen
pushes toward Mario Bautista →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Cory Sandhagen
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
DEC
W
KO
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
180 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
178 cm
Stance:
Switch
Mario Bautista
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
SUB
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Switch