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Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
15-5-0
VS
2026-10-24
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Light Heavyweight
Azamat Murzakanov
"The Professional"
16-0-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Dominick Reyes 'The Devastator'
52.4% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
67.6% 32.4%
Dominick Reyes
LightGBM
61.9% 38.1%
Dominick Reyes
Logistic (Core)
58.5% 41.5%
Dominick Reyes
CatBoost
59.2% 40.8%
Dominick Reyes
Ensemble
61.7% 38.3%
Dominick Reyes
No Age · CatBoost
56.2% 43.8%
Dominick Reyes
No Age · Ensemble
59.2% 40.8%
Dominick Reyes
No Age · LightGBM
61.0% 39.0%
Dominick Reyes
No Age · Logistic (Core)
57.5% 42.5%
Dominick Reyes
No Age · XGBoost
65.0% 35.0%
Dominick Reyes
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
58.0% 42.0%
Dominick Reyes
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
60.9% 39.1%
Dominick Reyes
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
65.0% 35.0%
Dominick Reyes
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
59.6% 40.4%
Dominick Reyes
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
56.6% 43.4%
Dominick Reyes
With Odds · CatBoost
53.5% 46.5%
Dominick Reyes
With Odds · Ensemble
58.2% 41.8%
Dominick Reyes
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
52.4% 47.6%
Dominick Reyes
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
58.5% 41.5%
Dominick Reyes
With Odds · XGBoost
55.3% 44.7%
Dominick Reyes
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
40%
Decision
51%
KO / TKO
9%
Submission
Decision40.0%
KO / TKO51.4%
Submission8.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.9%
Round 229.3%
Round 3+17.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 60% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Dominick Reyes
Azamat Murzakanov
Age
Dominick Reyes 36.8 yrs
11%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.68
11%
Reach edge
Matchup +15.2 cm
8%
Age
Azamat Murzakanov 37.5 yrs
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +4
7%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Azamat Murzakanov 1.93
5%
Height edge
Matchup +15.2 cm
4%
Head absorption rate
Azamat Murzakanov 57%
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Azamat Murzakanov 437
4%
Head absorption rate
Dominick Reyes 55%
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Dominick Reyes 0.19
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Dominick Reyes 1.13
3%
Distance strike defense
Azamat Murzakanov 57%
2%
← pushes toward Dominick Reyes pushes toward Azamat Murzakanov →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Dominick Reyes

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
6.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L KO
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Azamat Murzakanov

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
8.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
W KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Dominick Reyes
ADVANTAGE
Azamat Murzakanov
Striking Accuracy
52.9%
+2.0%
50.9%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.73
+0.58
3.15
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.71
+0.10
2.81
Striking Defense
52.6%
+0.4%
53.0%
Takedown Accuracy
37.5%
+2.9%
34.6%
Takedown Defense
71.3%
+1.3%
70.1%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.35
+0.17
0.52
Avg Control Time (sec)
77.13
+18.95
58.18
Strikes Per Round
17.44
+1.95
15.49
Head Strike %
63.4%
+4.0%
67.4%
Body Strike %
18.9%
+3.3%
22.2%
Leg Strike %
17.7%
+7.3%
10.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
EVEN
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
60.0%
EVEN
60.0%