Back
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
23-2-1
VS
2026-10-24
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Lightweight
Nurullo Aliev
"Tajik Eagle"
11-0-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Nurullo Aliev 'Tajik Eagle'
52.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
63.7% 36.3%
Grant Dawson
LightGBM
59.8% 40.2%
Grant Dawson
Logistic (Core)
58.0% 42.0%
Grant Dawson
CatBoost
58.5% 41.5%
Grant Dawson
Ensemble
59.0% 41.0%
Grant Dawson
No Age · CatBoost
61.0% 39.0%
Grant Dawson
No Age · Ensemble
62.6% 37.4%
Grant Dawson
No Age · LightGBM
62.1% 37.9%
Grant Dawson
No Age · Logistic (Core)
62.7% 37.3%
Grant Dawson
No Age · XGBoost
65.9% 34.1%
Grant Dawson
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
55.8% 44.2%
Grant Dawson
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
58.4% 41.6%
Grant Dawson
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
64.8% 35.2%
Grant Dawson
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
58.2% 41.8%
Grant Dawson
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
59.6% 40.4%
Grant Dawson
With Odds · CatBoost
52.4% 47.6%
Grant Dawson
With Odds · Ensemble
51.6% 48.4%
Grant Dawson
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
47.7% 52.3%
Nurullo Aliev
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
58.0% 42.0%
Grant Dawson
With Odds · XGBoost
52.2% 47.8%
Grant Dawson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
61%
Decision
22%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision61.4%
KO / TKO22.0%
Submission16.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 136.2%
Round 237.5%
Round 3+26.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 39% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Grant Dawson
Nurullo Aliev
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +15
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Grant Dawson -0.69
8%
Age
Nurullo Aliev 25.9 yrs
7%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
6%
Avg control time
Grant Dawson 141.65
6%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +6.80
5%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.50
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Nurullo Aliev -0.68
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Nurullo Aliev 4.91
4%
Age
Grant Dawson 32.7 yrs
4%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Grant Dawson 0.40
4%
Avg control time
Nurullo Aliev 129.99
4%
Striking defense
Grant Dawson 49%
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Grant Dawson 2.11
3%
← pushes toward Grant Dawson pushes toward Nurullo Aliev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Grant Dawson

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
10.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L KO
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Switch

Nurullo Aliev

Win Streak
4
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Grant Dawson
ADVANTAGE
Nurullo Aliev
Striking Accuracy
48.1%
+5.1%
43.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.81
+0.52
2.30
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.11
+0.11
2.22
Striking Defense
48.8%
+6.0%
54.8%
Takedown Accuracy
40.7%
+8.0%
48.7%
Takedown Defense
68.1%
+1.7%
69.8%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.11
+0.00
0.11
Avg Control Time (sec)
141.65
+11.66
129.99
Strikes Per Round
14.41
+1.64
12.76
Head Strike %
68.0%
+0.7%
68.7%
Body Strike %
19.8%
+1.0%
18.8%
Leg Strike %
12.3%
+0.2%
12.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
+20.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+40.0%
0.0%