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Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
20-7-0
VS
2026-10-31
UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. Kropschot
Welterweight
Carlos Leal
"The Lion"
22-7-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Randy Brown 'Rudeboy'
63.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
Main + Market
57.7% 42.3%
Randy Brown
XGBoost
57.7% 42.3%
Randy Brown
LightGBM
60.9% 39.1%
Randy Brown
Logistic (Core) currently viewing
63.9% 36.1%
Randy Brown
CatBoost
59.7% 40.3%
Randy Brown
Ensemble
62.0% 38.0%
Randy Brown
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
57.6% 42.4%
Randy Brown
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
61.8% 38.2%
Randy Brown
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
58.4% 41.6%
Randy Brown
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
64.0% 36.0%
Randy Brown
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
58.9% 41.1%
Randy Brown
With Odds · CatBoost
54.4% 45.6%
Randy Brown
With Odds · Ensemble
59.3% 40.7%
Randy Brown
With Odds · LightGBM
57.3% 42.7%
Randy Brown
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
63.9% 36.1%
Randy Brown
With Odds · XGBoost
54.8% 45.2%
Randy Brown
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
51%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
10%
Submission
Decision51.1%
KO / TKO39.1%
Submission9.8%
How long it lasts 3-round fight
45%
Goes the distance
fair +123
55%
Ends in a finish
fair -123
Rounds lineOverUnder
0.5 89% -819 11% +819
1.5 61% -156 39% +156
2.5 51% -103 49% +103
When it ends
Round 132%
Round 210%
Round 313%
Goes the distance45%
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4% (log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Randy Brown
Carlos Leal
Age
Randy Brown
11%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Randy Brown
7%
Sub attempts/fight
Carlos Leal
7%
Strikes absorbed/min
Carlos Leal
6%
Head absorption rate
Randy Brown
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Randy Brown
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Carlos Leal
5%
Head absorption rate
Carlos Leal
5%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
5%
Striking defense
Carlos Leal
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Carlos Leal
3%
Distance strike defense
Randy Brown
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Carlos Leal
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Carlos Leal
2%
← pushes toward Randy Brown pushes toward Carlos Leal →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Randy Brown

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
W KO
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Carlos Leal

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L KO
W KO
L DEC
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox