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King Green
32-17-1
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Lightweight
Esteban Ribovics
"El Gringo"
15-2-0
WITH ODDS · CATBOOST PREDICTION
King Green
52.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
61.4% 38.6%
King Green
LightGBM
58.7% 41.3%
King Green
Logistic (Core)
53.8% 46.2%
King Green
CatBoost
54.2% 45.8%
King Green
Ensemble
67.8% 32.2%
King Green
No Age · CatBoost
66.3% 33.7%
King Green
No Age · Ensemble
71.4% 28.6%
King Green
No Age · LightGBM
70.8% 29.2%
King Green
No Age · Logistic (Core)
62.2% 37.8%
King Green
No Age · XGBoost
69.4% 30.6%
King Green
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
54.9% 45.1%
King Green
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
64.9% 35.1%
King Green
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
59.3% 40.7%
King Green
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
52.9% 47.1%
King Green
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
59.0% 41.0%
King Green
With Odds · CatBoost currently viewing
52.9% 47.1%
King Green
With Odds · Ensemble
62.7% 37.3%
King Green
With Odds · LightGBM
53.2% 46.8%
King Green
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
53.8% 46.2%
King Green
With Odds · XGBoost
52.2% 47.8%
King Green
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
50%
Decision
37%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision49.8%
KO / TKO37.3%
Submission12.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.7%
Round 235.8%
Round 3+14.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 50% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
King Green
Esteban Ribovics
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +33
14%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +2.17
11%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +9.63
9%
Age
King Green 40.1 yrs
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
King Green -2.30
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Esteban Ribovics -4.23
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Esteban Ribovics 1.32
4%
Fights in last 2 years
King Green 5
4%
Striking defense
King Green 59%
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
King Green 279.50
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Esteban Ribovics 4.80
3%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Esteban Ribovics 475.50
3%
Distance strike defense
King Green 63%
2%
← pushes toward King Green pushes toward Esteban Ribovics →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

King Green

Win Streak
4
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
7.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W SUB
W KO
W DEC
L KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Esteban Ribovics

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
King Green
ADVANTAGE
Esteban Ribovics
Striking Accuracy
54.8%
+11.7%
43.1%
Strikes Landed/Min
6.37
+0.54
5.84
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.16
+1.64
4.80
Striking Defense
58.9%
+4.8%
54.1%
Takedown Accuracy
51.2%
+11.4%
39.8%
Takedown Defense
60.3%
+5.6%
66.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.31
+0.13
0.18
Avg Control Time (sec)
64.29
+7.72
56.57
Strikes Per Round
28.22
+2.64
25.58
Head Strike %
59.9%
+9.9%
69.8%
Body Strike %
24.1%
+6.5%
17.6%
Leg Strike %
16.0%
+3.4%
12.6%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
+20.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
60.0%
+40.0%
20.0%