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Seokhyeon Ko
"The Korean Tyson"
13-2-0
VS
2026-11-07
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
Welterweight
Wellington Turman
"The Prodigy"
18-8-0
MAIN + MARKET PREDICTION
Seokhyeon Ko 'The Korean Tyson'
71.9% CONFIDENCE
Fight Insights
58%
Seokhyeon Ko
Fighters who absorb under 2.2 significant strikes per minute have won 58% of their UFC fights (1262-912)
Seokhyeon Ko: absorbs 1.5/min
62%
Seokhyeon Ko
Fighters who have won 85%+ of 12+ pro fights facing an opponent who has been finished 2+ times in the UFC have won 62% of their UFC fights (471-286)
Seokhyeon Ko: 13-2-0 record | Wellington Turman: finished 3 times
57%
Seokhyeon Ko
Fighters who average 2.8+ takedowns per 15 minutes have won 57% of their UFC fights (1170-882)
Seokhyeon Ko: 3.3 takedowns/15 min
44%
Wellington Turman
Fighters who absorb 4.1+ significant strikes per minute have won 44% of their UFC fights (930-1190)
Wellington Turman: absorbs 4.2/min
43%
Wellington Turman
Fighters who are returning from a layoff of a year or more have won 43% of their UFC fights (624-820)
Wellington Turman: 35 months since last fight
17%
Matchup
Fights where a fighter who averages 3.8+ minutes of control time per fight faces an opponent who is coming off a submission loss end in a KO/TKO 17% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=111)
Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown — these describe the past, they are not predictions.
What Every Model Says
Main + Market currently viewing
71.9% 28.1%
Seokhyeon Ko
XGBoost
71.9% 28.1%
Seokhyeon Ko
LightGBM
75.4% 24.6%
Seokhyeon Ko
Logistic (Core)
65.7% 34.3%
Seokhyeon Ko
CatBoost
73.1% 26.9%
Seokhyeon Ko
Ensemble
74.9% 25.1%
Seokhyeon Ko
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
74.7% 25.3%
Seokhyeon Ko
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
73.9% 26.1%
Seokhyeon Ko
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
73.6% 26.4%
Seokhyeon Ko
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
65.0% 35.0%
Seokhyeon Ko
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
73.6% 26.4%
Seokhyeon Ko
With Odds · CatBoost
59.7% 40.3%
Seokhyeon Ko
With Odds · Ensemble
57.1% 42.9%
Seokhyeon Ko
With Odds · LightGBM
57.9% 42.1%
Seokhyeon Ko
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
65.7% 34.3%
Seokhyeon Ko
With Odds · XGBoost
59.4% 40.6%
Seokhyeon Ko
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
53%
Decision
25%
KO / TKO
23%
Submission
Decision52.6%
KO / TKO24.6%
Submission22.9%
How long it lasts 3-round fight
55%
Goes the distance
fair -121
45%
Ends in a finish
fair +121
Rounds lineOverUnder
0.5 91% -967 9% +967
1.5 72% -259 28% +259
2.5 59% -147 41% +147
When it ends
Round 119%
Round 213%
Round 313%
Goes the distance55%
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4% (log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Seokhyeon Ko
Wellington Turman
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.91
13%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 57
11%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -11
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.06
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Seokhyeon Ko 3.95
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Seokhyeon Ko -0.28
4%
Age
Seokhyeon Ko 33.1 yrs
4%
Distance strike defense
Seokhyeon Ko 64%
4%
Avg control time
Seokhyeon Ko 121.22
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Seokhyeon Ko 2.09
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Wellington Turman 3.48
4%
Age
Wellington Turman 30.3 yrs
3%
Takedown defense
Seokhyeon Ko 57%
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Seokhyeon Ko 900
2%
← pushes toward Seokhyeon Ko pushes toward Wellington Turman →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Seokhyeon Ko

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Wellington Turman

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
L DEC
L DEC
W SUB
W DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Seokhyeon Ko
ADVANTAGE
Wellington Turman
Striking Accuracy
46.8%
+2.0%
48.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.11
+0.02
3.08
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.09
+1.49
3.57
Striking Defense
60.4%
+9.9%
50.5%
Takedown Accuracy
46.0%
+15.9%
30.1%
Takedown Defense
57.2%
+2.9%
54.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.14
+0.01
0.15
Avg Control Time (sec)
121.22
+41.80
79.42
Strikes Per Round
15.37
+0.11
15.26
Head Strike %
69.9%
+9.3%
60.7%
Body Strike %
15.9%
+4.5%
20.4%
Leg Strike %
14.2%
+4.8%
19.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
66.7%
+26.7%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%