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Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
27-4-0
VS
2026-10-24
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Featherweight
Movsar Evloev
19-0-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Alexander Volkanovski 'The Great'
58.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
56.1% 43.9%
Alexander Volkanovski
LightGBM
51.0% 49.0%
Alexander Volkanovski
Logistic (Core)
60.1% 39.9%
Alexander Volkanovski
CatBoost
52.0% 48.0%
Alexander Volkanovski
Ensemble
56.3% 43.7%
Alexander Volkanovski
market-margin__xgb-full
50.7% 49.3%
Alexander Volkanovski
No Age · CatBoost
59.7% 40.3%
Alexander Volkanovski
No Age · Ensemble
62.6% 37.4%
Alexander Volkanovski
No Age · LightGBM
64.1% 35.9%
Alexander Volkanovski
No Age · Logistic (Core)
63.9% 36.1%
Alexander Volkanovski
No Age · XGBoost
60.1% 39.9%
Alexander Volkanovski
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
50.1% 49.9%
Alexander Volkanovski
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
58.9% 41.1%
Alexander Volkanovski
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
54.2% 45.8%
Alexander Volkanovski
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
59.8% 40.2%
Alexander Volkanovski
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost currently viewing
58.2% 41.8%
Alexander Volkanovski
With Odds · CatBoost
51.5% 48.5%
Alexander Volkanovski
With Odds · Ensemble
53.2% 46.8%
Alexander Volkanovski
With Odds · LightGBM
46.9% 53.1%
Movsar Evloev
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
60.1% 39.9%
Alexander Volkanovski
With Odds · XGBoost
52.1% 47.9%
Alexander Volkanovski
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
65%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision64.9%
KO / TKO24.0%
Submission11.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 126.6%
Round 220.5%
Round 3+52.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 35% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Alexander Volkanovski
Movsar Evloev
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.43
12%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +5.37
10%
Age
Alexander Volkanovski 38.1 yrs
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Movsar Evloev -1.50
10%
Avg takedowns attempted
Movsar Evloev 6.29
6%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 29
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alexander Volkanovski -2.01
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 8%
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alexander Volkanovski 4.52
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +12
3%
Fights per year
Alexander Volkanovski 1.96
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Movsar Evloev 1200.00
2%
Elo rating
Movsar Evloev 1,629
2%
Head absorption rate
Alexander Volkanovski 59%
2%
← pushes toward Alexander Volkanovski pushes toward Movsar Evloev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Alexander Volkanovski

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
15.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
L KO
L KO
W KO
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Movsar Evloev

Win Streak
10
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
17.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Alexander Volkanovski
ADVANTAGE
Movsar Evloev
Striking Accuracy
55.5%
+8.7%
46.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.95
+1.55
3.40
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.12
+0.12
2.99
Striking Defense
57.4%
+1.8%
59.2%
Takedown Accuracy
31.6%
+22.8%
54.4%
Takedown Defense
63.4%
+7.6%
55.8%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.20
+0.08
0.12
Avg Control Time (sec)
74.31
+19.64
93.95
Strikes Per Round
23.02
+6.07
16.95
Head Strike %
68.5%
+2.2%
66.2%
Body Strike %
12.0%
+9.8%
21.8%
Leg Strike %
19.5%
+7.6%
11.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+40.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
0.0%