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Yana Santos
17-8-0
VS
2026-10-31
UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. Kropschot
Women's Bantamweight
Luana Santos
9-2-0
MAIN + MARKET PREDICTION
Luana Santos
76.6% CONFIDENCE
Market vs Model STRONG VALUE
Yana Santos
Luana Santos
Opening line
+149
-170
Market says
39%
61%
Main + Market says
23%
77%
Gap vs market
-16
+16
Market Margin says
26%
74%
Edge at that price
-14
+11
Luana Santos at -170: Market Margin gives 74% vs 63% needed to break even — a 11-point edge.
The gap uses whichever model you've selected. Value always comes from Market Margin, the one model whose disagreements with the betting line were backtested (flagged sides returned about +8% for favorites and +18% for underdogs on flat bets at the opening price across ~2,800 past fights). Other models' disagreements with the market haven't held up, so they don't get a value flag. It's measured against the opening line — if the price has moved, the edge will be different.
Fight Insights
63%
Luana Santos
Fighters who are 5+ years younger than their opponent have won 63% of their UFC fights (1773-1054)
Luana Santos is 27, Yana Santos is 37
59%
Luana Santos
Fighters who are coming off a win facing an opponent who has been knocked out 2+ times in the UFC have won 59% of their UFC fights (700-477)
Yana Santos: KO'd 3 times
57%
Luana Santos
Fighters who average 3.8+ minutes of control time per fight have won 57% of their UFC fights (1170-886)
Luana Santos: 6.1 min control/fight
43%
Yana Santos
Fighters who are returning from a layoff of a year or more have won 43% of their UFC fights (624-820)
Yana Santos: 13 months since last fight
59%
Yana Santos
Fighters who are on a 3+ fight win streak facing an opponent who lands under 2.6 significant strikes per minute have won 59% of their UFC fights (167-114)
Yana Santos: 3-fight win streak | Luana Santos: 2.5 sig strikes/min
30%
Market check · Yana Santos
Underdogs who are 35 or older have won 30% of their fights — 5 points below the 35% the opening lines implied (n=1451)
Yana Santos: opening line implies a 39% chance to win
69%
Market check · Luana Santos
Favorites who average 3.8+ minutes of control time per fight have won 69% of their fights — 4 points above the 65% the opening lines implied (n=1216)
Luana Santos: opening line implies a 61% chance to win
63%
Matchup
Fights where a fighter who has gone to a decision in 70%+ of their UFC fights (5+ fights) go the distance 63% of the time (vs 48% of all UFC fights, n=1022)
60%
Division & format
Women's Bantamweight fights go the distance 60% of the time (vs 48% of all UFC fights, n=252)
22%
Division & format
Women's Bantamweight fights end in a KO/TKO 22% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=252)
Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown — these describe the past, they are not predictions.
What Every Model Says
Main + Market currently viewing
23.4% 76.6%
Luana Santos
XGBoost
19.5% 80.5%
Luana Santos
LightGBM
24.7% 75.3%
Luana Santos
Logistic (Core)
30.0% 70.0%
Luana Santos
CatBoost
23.4% 76.6%
Luana Santos
Ensemble
19.9% 80.1%
Luana Santos
Market Margin · XGBoost
26.1% 73.9%
Luana Santos
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
23.5% 76.5%
Luana Santos
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
18.5% 81.5%
Luana Santos
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
23.4% 76.6%
Luana Santos
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
28.4% 71.6%
Luana Santos
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
20.3% 79.7%
Luana Santos
With Odds · CatBoost
28.1% 71.9%
Luana Santos
With Odds · Ensemble
23.3% 76.7%
Luana Santos
With Odds · LightGBM
24.2% 75.8%
Luana Santos
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
30.0% 70.0%
Luana Santos
With Odds · XGBoost
21.7% 78.3%
Luana Santos
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
68%
Decision
18%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision67.7%
KO / TKO18.0%
Submission14.3%
How long it lasts 3-round fight
65%
Goes the distance
fair -183
35%
Ends in a finish
fair +183
Rounds lineOverUnder
0.5 94% -1482 6% +1482
1.5 80% -412 20% +412
2.5 70% -233 30% +233
When it ends
Round 113%
Round 214%
Round 38%
Goes the distance65%
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4% (log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Yana Santos
Luana Santos
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.05
12%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +10.43
10%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -68
7%
Avg control time
Luana Santos 136.27
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Yana Santos +0.86
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Luana Santos +1.37
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Luana Santos 4.04
5%
Age
Yana Santos 37.0 yrs
4%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +14
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.07
4%
Age
Luana Santos 26.5 yrs
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Luana Santos 2.26
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -8%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Yana Santos 1.73
3%
← pushes toward Yana Santos pushes toward Luana Santos →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Yana Santos

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
L DEC
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Luana Santos

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
11.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W SUB
L DEC
W SUB
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Yana Santos
ADVANTAGE
Luana Santos
Striking Accuracy
54.2%
+4.6%
49.6%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.18
+1.98
2.20
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.20
+0.93
2.26
Striking Defense
55.3%
+6.4%
61.7%
Takedown Accuracy
35.3%
+0.7%
36.1%
Takedown Defense
60.5%
+7.7%
68.2%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.15
+0.09
0.07
Avg Control Time (sec)
75.27
+61.00
136.27
Strikes Per Round
19.61
+7.01
12.60
Head Strike %
48.5%
+13.2%
61.7%
Body Strike %
31.5%
+7.9%
23.7%
Leg Strike %
20.0%
+5.3%
14.6%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+40.0%
40.0%