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Rafael Dos Anjos
32-17-0
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
18-8-0
NO AGE · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Alexander Hernandez 'El Gran Chango'
50.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
42.3% 57.7%
Alexander Hernandez
LightGBM
42.7% 57.3%
Alexander Hernandez
Logistic (Core)
49.4% 50.6%
Alexander Hernandez
CatBoost
49.3% 50.7%
Alexander Hernandez
Ensemble
44.4% 55.6%
Alexander Hernandez
No Age · CatBoost
49.8% 50.2%
Alexander Hernandez
No Age · Ensemble
48.9% 51.1%
Alexander Hernandez
No Age · LightGBM currently viewing
49.8% 50.2%
Alexander Hernandez
No Age · Logistic (Core)
54.3% 45.7%
Rafael Dos Anjos
No Age · XGBoost
50.0% 50.0%
Alexander Hernandez
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
44.9% 55.1%
Alexander Hernandez
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
44.5% 55.5%
Alexander Hernandez
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
47.4% 52.6%
Alexander Hernandez
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
48.5% 51.5%
Alexander Hernandez
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
41.3% 58.7%
Alexander Hernandez
With Odds · CatBoost
46.7% 53.3%
Alexander Hernandez
With Odds · Ensemble
50.6% 49.4%
Rafael Dos Anjos
With Odds · LightGBM
48.6% 51.4%
Alexander Hernandez
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
49.4% 50.6%
Alexander Hernandez
With Odds · XGBoost
49.9% 50.1%
Alexander Hernandez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
49%
Decision
31%
KO / TKO
20%
Submission
Decision49.1%
KO / TKO30.8%
Submission20.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 148.5%
Round 233.7%
Round 3+17.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Rafael Dos Anjos
Alexander Hernandez
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +23
19%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 47
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.12
7%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.13
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Rafael Dos Anjos -0.37
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 6%
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Rafael Dos Anjos 4.37
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alexander Hernandez 2.08
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Rafael Dos Anjos 495
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Alexander Hernandez 3.98
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alexander Hernandez -0.20
2%
Career head strikes absorbed
Alexander Hernandez 495
2%
Fights in last 2 years
Alexander Hernandez 5
2%
KO power vs chin mismatch
Matchup -0.05
2%
← pushes toward Rafael Dos Anjos pushes toward Alexander Hernandez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Rafael Dos Anjos

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
14.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L DEC
L DEC
W SUB
L KO
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Alexander Hernandez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
11.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
W KO
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Rafael Dos Anjos
ADVANTAGE
Alexander Hernandez
Striking Accuracy
48.7%
+7.7%
40.9%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.08
+0.69
3.77
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.16
+0.83
3.98
Striking Defense
53.4%
+7.9%
61.3%
Takedown Accuracy
33.4%
+4.5%
37.9%
Takedown Defense
51.1%
+15.3%
66.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.22
+0.10
0.32
Avg Control Time (sec)
84.13
+14.94
69.19
Strikes Per Round
15.40
+2.67
18.07
Head Strike %
62.2%
+0.8%
61.4%
Body Strike %
23.3%
+1.1%
24.5%
Leg Strike %
14.5%
+0.3%
14.2%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+60.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
40.0%