Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
18-4-0
VS
Rongzhu
27-6-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
56.5%
43.5%
Rafa Garcia
LightGBM
56.3%
43.7%
Rafa Garcia
Logistic (Core)
52.0%
48.0%
Rafa Garcia
CatBoost
58.2%
41.8%
Rafa Garcia
Ensemble
62.7%
37.3%
Rafa Garcia
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
56.5%
43.5%
Rafa Garcia
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
59.7%
40.3%
Rafa Garcia
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
52.9%
47.1%
Rafa Garcia
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
51.1%
48.9%
Rafa Garcia
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
62.5%
37.5%
Rafa Garcia
With Odds · CatBoost
52.7%
47.3%
Rafa Garcia
With Odds · Ensemble
57.3%
42.7%
Rafa Garcia
With Odds · LightGBM
54.3%
45.7%
Rafa Garcia
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
51.8%
48.2%
Rafa Garcia
With Odds · XGBoost
currently viewing
55.8%
44.2%
Rafa Garcia
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
60%
Decision
25%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 40%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Rafa Garcia
Rongzhu
9%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Rafa Garcia
pushes toward Rongzhu →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Rafa Garcia
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
W
DEC
L
KO
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
178 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Rongzhu
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
KO
L
SUB
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
180 cm
Stance:
Orthodox