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Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
20-7-0
VS
2026-10-31
UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. Kropschot
Welterweight
Jacobe Smith
"Cobe"
11-0-0
MAIN + MARKET PREDICTION
Jacobe Smith 'Cobe'
62.6% CONFIDENCE
Fight Insights
63%
Jacobe Smith
Fighters who are 5+ years younger than their opponent have won 63% of their UFC fights (1773-1054)
Jacobe Smith is 31, Randy Brown is 36
59%
Jacobe Smith
Fighters who are undefeated with 5+ wins have won 59% of their UFC fights (900-615)
Jacobe Smith: 11-0-0 record
59%
Jacobe Smith
Fighters who are coming off a win facing an opponent who has been knocked out 2+ times in the UFC have won 59% of their UFC fights (700-477)
Randy Brown: KO'd 3 times
53%
Matchup
Fights where a fighter who scores 0.89+ knockdowns per 15 minutes faces an opponent who has been finished 2+ times in the UFC end in a KO/TKO 53% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=514)
Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown — these describe the past, they are not predictions.
What Every Model Says
Main + Market currently viewing
37.4% 62.6%
Jacobe Smith
XGBoost
37.4% 62.6%
Jacobe Smith
LightGBM
35.5% 64.5%
Jacobe Smith
Logistic (Core)
35.0% 65.0%
Jacobe Smith
CatBoost
34.6% 65.4%
Jacobe Smith
Ensemble
35.9% 64.1%
Jacobe Smith
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
32.5% 67.5%
Jacobe Smith
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
35.5% 64.5%
Jacobe Smith
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
36.8% 63.2%
Jacobe Smith
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
34.9% 65.1%
Jacobe Smith
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
33.9% 66.1%
Jacobe Smith
With Odds · CatBoost
46.1% 53.9%
Jacobe Smith
With Odds · Ensemble
57.4% 42.6%
Randy Brown
With Odds · LightGBM
57.2% 42.8%
Randy Brown
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
35.0% 65.0%
Jacobe Smith
With Odds · XGBoost
54.9% 45.1%
Randy Brown
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
42%
Decision
43%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
Decision41.6%
KO / TKO42.6%
Submission15.8%
How long it lasts 3-round fight
40%
Goes the distance
fair +150
60%
Ends in a finish
fair -150
Rounds lineOverUnder
0.5 82% -443 18% +443
1.5 53% -112 47% +112
2.5 42% +137 58% -137
When it ends
Round 139%
Round 217%
Round 34%
Goes the distance40%
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4% (log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Randy Brown
Jacobe Smith
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.40
10%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +5.53
10%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +16
9%
Age
Randy Brown 36.3 yrs
7%
Head absorption rate
Randy Brown 48%
7%
Reach edge
Matchup +15.2 cm
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Randy Brown -0.45
6%
Last 2 avg fight time
Jacobe Smith 136.50
4%
Age
Jacobe Smith 30.8 yrs
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -19%
4%
Total control time conceded
Jacobe Smith 67.67
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jacobe Smith 2.27
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup -0.37
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Randy Brown 2.05
3%
← pushes toward Randy Brown pushes toward Jacobe Smith →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Randy Brown

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
W KO
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Jacobe Smith

Win Streak
4
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
3.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W SUB
W KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Randy Brown
ADVANTAGE
Jacobe Smith
Striking Accuracy
46.2%
+6.9%
53.1%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.86
+0.29
3.57
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.22
+0.79
2.43
Striking Defense
52.5%
+1.2%
53.7%
Takedown Accuracy
32.0%
+17.5%
49.5%
Takedown Defense
71.4%
+1.8%
69.7%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.26
+0.05
0.21
Avg Control Time (sec)
61.48
+16.58
78.07
Strikes Per Round
18.30
+1.65
16.65
Head Strike %
60.7%
+3.9%
64.5%
Body Strike %
21.2%
+0.2%
21.0%
Leg Strike %
18.1%
+3.6%
14.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+60.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+80.0%
100.0%