Valter Walker
"The Clean Monster"
15-1-0
VS
Thomas Petersen
"The Train"
10-4-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
69.6%
30.4%
Valter Walker
LightGBM
66.4%
33.6%
Valter Walker
Logistic (Core)
currently viewing
67.6%
32.4%
Valter Walker
CatBoost
62.0%
38.0%
Valter Walker
Ensemble
66.4%
33.6%
Valter Walker
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
35%
Decision
37%
KO / TKO
28%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 65%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Valter Walker
Thomas Petersen
12%
12%
11%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Valter Walker
pushes toward Thomas Petersen →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Valter Walker
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
W
SUB
W
SUB
W
SUB
W
SUB
Height:
198 cm
Weight:
244 lbs
Reach:
198 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Thomas Petersen
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
W
DEC
L
KO
W
DEC
L
KO
Height:
185 cm
Weight:
264 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Southpaw