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Mickey Gall
7-7-0
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Middleweight
Sedriques Dumas
"The Reaper"
10-4-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Mickey Gall
61.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
61.6% 38.4%
Mickey Gall
LightGBM
62.1% 37.9%
Mickey Gall
Logistic (Core)
55.4% 44.6%
Mickey Gall
CatBoost
60.1% 39.9%
Mickey Gall
Ensemble
63.8% 36.2%
Mickey Gall
market-margin__xgb-full
66.0% 34.0%
Mickey Gall
No Age · CatBoost
63.0% 37.0%
Mickey Gall
No Age · Ensemble
65.9% 34.1%
Mickey Gall
No Age · LightGBM
67.2% 32.8%
Mickey Gall
No Age · Logistic (Core)
61.6% 38.4%
Mickey Gall
No Age · XGBoost
65.9% 34.1%
Mickey Gall
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
67.0% 33.0%
Mickey Gall
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
65.8% 34.2%
Mickey Gall
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
65.9% 34.1%
Mickey Gall
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
58.7% 41.3%
Mickey Gall
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
67.2% 32.8%
Mickey Gall
With Odds · CatBoost
59.7% 40.3%
Mickey Gall
With Odds · Ensemble
58.1% 41.9%
Mickey Gall
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
61.2% 38.8%
Mickey Gall
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
55.4% 44.6%
Mickey Gall
With Odds · XGBoost
63.5% 36.5%
Mickey Gall
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
44%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
Decision43.8%
KO / TKO34.6%
Submission21.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.7%
Round 231.3%
Round 3+12.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Mickey Gall
Sedriques Dumas
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
17%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
13%
Age
Mickey Gall 34.7 yrs
9%
Market line movement diff
Matchup
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Sedriques Dumas -1.26
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mickey Gall -1.18
6%
Sub attempts/fight
Sedriques Dumas 0.14
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Sedriques Dumas 2.25
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mickey Gall 2.25
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Sedriques Dumas 259.50
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Mickey Gall 4.27
2%
Age
Sedriques Dumas 31.1 yrs
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Mickey Gall 0.36
2%
Round 1 strike output
Sedriques Dumas 7.42
2%
← pushes toward Mickey Gall pushes toward Sedriques Dumas →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mickey Gall

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
7.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L DEC
L KO
L DEC
W SUB
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Switch

Sedriques Dumas

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
5.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
L SUB
L DEC
L KO
W DEC
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Mickey Gall
ADVANTAGE
Sedriques Dumas
Striking Accuracy
49.5%
+5.8%
43.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.66
+1.84
1.82
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.27
+1.86
2.41
Striking Defense
52.9%
+0.1%
52.8%
Takedown Accuracy
36.8%
+4.0%
32.8%
Takedown Defense
57.3%
+8.0%
49.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.15
+0.06
0.09
Avg Control Time (sec)
69.39
+29.80
99.19
Strikes Per Round
16.76
+5.94
10.82
Head Strike %
69.1%
+11.5%
57.6%
Body Strike %
19.5%
+1.8%
21.3%
Leg Strike %
11.5%
+9.7%
21.1%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
EVEN
20.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
0.0%