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Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
19-5-0
VS
2026-10-24
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
21-4-0
NO AGE · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Merab Dvalishvili 'The Machine'
51.7% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
52.3% 47.7%
Petr Yan
LightGBM
52.7% 47.3%
Petr Yan
Logistic (Core)
51.1% 48.9%
Petr Yan
CatBoost
56.3% 43.7%
Petr Yan
Ensemble
42.0% 58.0%
Merab Dvalishvili
market-margin__xgb-full
58.8% 41.2%
Petr Yan
No Age · CatBoost
56.2% 43.8%
Petr Yan
No Age · Ensemble
36.3% 63.7%
Merab Dvalishvili
No Age · LightGBM currently viewing
48.3% 51.7%
Merab Dvalishvili
No Age · Logistic (Core)
46.7% 53.3%
Merab Dvalishvili
No Age · XGBoost
51.6% 48.4%
Petr Yan
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
54.4% 45.6%
Petr Yan
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
39.7% 60.3%
Merab Dvalishvili
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
50.1% 49.9%
Petr Yan
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
54.4% 45.6%
Petr Yan
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
48.8% 51.2%
Merab Dvalishvili
With Odds · CatBoost
61.8% 38.2%
Petr Yan
With Odds · Ensemble
52.8% 47.2%
Petr Yan
With Odds · LightGBM
60.5% 39.5%
Petr Yan
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
51.1% 48.9%
Petr Yan
With Odds · XGBoost
66.0% 34.0%
Petr Yan
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
73%
Decision
17%
KO / TKO
10%
Submission
Decision72.7%
KO / TKO17.4%
Submission9.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 119.8%
Round 228.3%
Round 3+51.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 27% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Petr Yan
Merab Dvalishvili
Avg takedowns attempted
Merab Dvalishvili 15.50
16%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.57
15%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Petr Yan -1.73
7%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 14%
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.11
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Merab Dvalishvili -0.65
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Petr Yan 4.23
4%
Career head strikes absorbed
Merab Dvalishvili 493
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Petr Yan 0.20
3%
Elo rating
Merab Dvalishvili 1,622
3%
Head absorption rate
Petr Yan 66%
3%
Fights per year
Merab Dvalishvili 2.13
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Petr Yan 4.28
2%
Finish loss rate
Merab Dvalishvili 9%
2%
← pushes toward Petr Yan pushes toward Merab Dvalishvili →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Petr Yan

Win Streak
4
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
21.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Switch

Merab Dvalishvili

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
22.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W DEC
W SUB
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Petr Yan
ADVANTAGE
Merab Dvalishvili
Striking Accuracy
55.2%
+13.3%
41.9%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.74
+0.38
4.36
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.23
+0.95
3.28
Striking Defense
59.0%
+7.5%
51.6%
Takedown Accuracy
42.7%
+10.1%
32.6%
Takedown Defense
83.0%
+14.8%
68.2%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.24
+0.15
0.09
Avg Control Time (sec)
69.43
+20.37
89.80
Strikes Per Round
22.18
+1.32
20.86
Head Strike %
67.9%
+0.7%
67.2%
Body Strike %
17.8%
+0.7%
18.5%
Leg Strike %
14.2%
+0.0%
14.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
EVEN
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%