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Court McGee
"The Crusher"
23-14-0
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Welterweight
Eric Nolan
"Nightime"
8-4-0
Thin UFC data
RECENCY-HEAVY · CATBOOST PREDICTION
Eric Nolan 'Nightime'
52.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
43.7% 56.3%
Eric Nolan
LightGBM
45.6% 54.4%
Eric Nolan
Logistic (Core)
41.2% 58.8%
Eric Nolan
CatBoost
48.2% 51.8%
Eric Nolan
Ensemble
43.9% 56.1%
Eric Nolan
No Age · CatBoost
57.5% 42.5%
Court McGee
No Age · Ensemble
54.8% 45.2%
Court McGee
No Age · LightGBM
59.2% 40.8%
Court McGee
No Age · Logistic (Core)
53.4% 46.6%
Court McGee
No Age · XGBoost
54.0% 46.0%
Court McGee
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost currently viewing
47.8% 52.2%
Eric Nolan
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
42.9% 57.1%
Eric Nolan
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
41.7% 58.3%
Eric Nolan
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
40.3% 59.7%
Eric Nolan
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
37.5% 62.5%
Eric Nolan
With Odds · CatBoost
48.8% 51.2%
Eric Nolan
With Odds · Ensemble
45.0% 55.0%
Eric Nolan
With Odds · LightGBM
45.2% 54.8%
Eric Nolan
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
41.2% 58.8%
Eric Nolan
With Odds · XGBoost
45.5% 54.5%
Eric Nolan
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
50%
Decision
30%
KO / TKO
20%
Submission
Decision50.0%
KO / TKO30.1%
Submission19.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 157.2%
Round 227.8%
Round 3+15.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 50% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Court McGee
Eric Nolan
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +12.75
22%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 43
13%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +25
10%
Age
Court McGee 41.8 yrs
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Eric Nolan -0.51
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Court McGee -0.51
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.13
4%
Age
Eric Nolan 29.1 yrs
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Eric Nolan 2.03
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Court McGee 3.67
2%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -4%
2%
Distance strike defense
Eric Nolan 57%
2%
Past prime
Court McGee 1
2%
Fights per year
Court McGee 1.60
2%
← pushes toward Court McGee pushes toward Eric Nolan →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Court McGee

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
7.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W SUB
L DEC
L KO
L KO
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Eric Nolan

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
11.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L SUB
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Court McGee
ADVANTAGE
Eric Nolan
Striking Accuracy
39.1%
+1.8%
40.9%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.27
+1.19
2.08
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.29
+0.79
2.50
Striking Defense
58.0%
+6.3%
51.7%
Takedown Accuracy
29.9%
+5.6%
35.5%
Takedown Defense
67.9%
+19.6%
48.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.17
+0.02
0.16
Avg Control Time (sec)
90.43
+22.60
67.82
Strikes Per Round
15.91
+3.60
12.32
Head Strike %
51.8%
+14.7%
66.5%
Body Strike %
26.0%
+6.2%
19.8%
Leg Strike %
22.1%
+8.4%
13.7%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
0.0%