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Johnny Walker
22-9-0
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Heavyweight
Mick Parkin
10-1-0
WITH ODDS · LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Mick Parkin
56.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
50.8% 49.2%
Johnny Walker
LightGBM
50.5% 49.5%
Johnny Walker
Logistic (Core)
43.1% 56.9%
Mick Parkin
CatBoost
48.3% 51.7%
Mick Parkin
Ensemble
54.5% 45.5%
Johnny Walker
No Age · CatBoost
44.0% 56.0%
Mick Parkin
No Age · Ensemble
52.0% 48.0%
Johnny Walker
No Age · LightGBM
46.3% 53.7%
Mick Parkin
No Age · Logistic (Core)
45.8% 54.2%
Mick Parkin
No Age · XGBoost
51.4% 48.6%
Johnny Walker
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
52.9% 47.1%
Johnny Walker
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
59.9% 40.1%
Johnny Walker
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
56.3% 43.7%
Johnny Walker
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
44.5% 55.5%
Mick Parkin
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
56.4% 43.6%
Johnny Walker
With Odds · CatBoost
47.1% 52.9%
Mick Parkin
With Odds · Ensemble
56.1% 43.9%
Johnny Walker
With Odds · LightGBM
47.5% 52.5%
Mick Parkin
With Odds · Logistic (Core) currently viewing
43.1% 56.9%
Mick Parkin
With Odds · XGBoost
51.6% 48.4%
Johnny Walker
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
42%
Decision
47%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision42.4%
KO / TKO46.5%
Submission11.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.3%
Round 230.9%
Round 3+16.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 58% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Johnny Walker
Mick Parkin
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mick Parkin -1.15
13%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +20
11%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.21
10%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.05
8%
Age
Johnny Walker 34.5 yrs
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Johnny Walker 1.21
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mick Parkin 2.04
4%
Head absorption rate
Mick Parkin 57%
4%
Head absorption rate
Johnny Walker 54%
3%
Control time conceded
Mick Parkin 61.33
3%
Fights per year
Mick Parkin 3.00
3%
Age
Mick Parkin 31.0 yrs
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Johnny Walker -0.27
3%
Round 1 strike output
Mick Parkin 18.97
2%
← pushes toward Johnny Walker pushes toward Mick Parkin →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Johnny Walker

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
7.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
L KO
L KO
L DEC
Height: 198 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 208 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Mick Parkin

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 265 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Johnny Walker
ADVANTAGE
Mick Parkin
Striking Accuracy
50.2%
+2.8%
47.4%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.19
+0.79
3.97
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.60
+1.00
3.60
Striking Defense
52.3%
+5.7%
58.0%
Takedown Accuracy
34.2%
+3.8%
38.1%
Takedown Defense
59.5%
+3.8%
63.3%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.25
+0.02
0.22
Avg Control Time (sec)
62.60
+21.98
84.58
Strikes Per Round
15.50
+2.39
17.89
Head Strike %
52.2%
+11.2%
63.4%
Body Strike %
15.4%
+1.2%
14.2%
Leg Strike %
32.4%
+9.9%
22.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+60.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
EVEN
20.0%