Renato Moicano
20-7-1
VS
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16-5-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
70.5%
29.5%
Renato Moicano
LightGBM
67.7%
32.3%
Renato Moicano
Logistic (Core)
55.7%
44.3%
Renato Moicano
CatBoost
64.2%
35.8%
Renato Moicano
Ensemble
currently viewing
70.1%
29.9%
Renato Moicano
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
57%
Decision
22%
KO / TKO
21%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 43%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Renato Moicano
Brian Ortega
17%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Renato Moicano
pushes toward Brian Ortega →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Renato Moicano
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
L
DEC
L
SUB
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
180 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Brian Ortega
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
16.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
DEC
W
SUB
L
KO
L
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Switch
Head-to-Head Stats
Renato Moicano
ADVANTAGE
Brian Ortega
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate