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Ateba Gautier
"The Silent Assassin"
9-1-0
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Middleweight
Roman Kopylov
14-5-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Ateba Gautier 'The Silent Assassin'
64.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
75.3% 24.7%
Ateba Gautier
LightGBM
77.0% 23.0%
Ateba Gautier
Logistic (Core)
79.3% 20.7%
Ateba Gautier
CatBoost
78.3% 21.7%
Ateba Gautier
Ensemble
77.7% 22.3%
Ateba Gautier
No Age · CatBoost
73.5% 26.5%
Ateba Gautier
No Age · Ensemble
74.8% 25.2%
Ateba Gautier
No Age · LightGBM
74.3% 25.7%
Ateba Gautier
No Age · Logistic (Core)
73.7% 26.3%
Ateba Gautier
No Age · XGBoost
76.1% 23.9%
Ateba Gautier
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
78.8% 21.2%
Ateba Gautier
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
77.3% 22.7%
Ateba Gautier
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
78.2% 21.8%
Ateba Gautier
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
79.8% 20.2%
Ateba Gautier
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
76.7% 23.3%
Ateba Gautier
With Odds · CatBoost
61.8% 38.2%
Ateba Gautier
With Odds · Ensemble
66.3% 33.7%
Ateba Gautier
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
64.2% 35.8%
Ateba Gautier
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
79.3% 20.7%
Ateba Gautier
With Odds · XGBoost
65.0% 35.0%
Ateba Gautier
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
46%
Decision
45%
KO / TKO
9%
Submission
Decision45.6%
KO / TKO45.2%
Submission9.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 141.5%
Round 229.1%
Round 3+29.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 54% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Ateba Gautier
Roman Kopylov
Age
Ateba Gautier 24.5 yrs
12%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -9
12%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.10
11%
Reach edge
Matchup +15.2 cm
8%
Age
Roman Kopylov 34.4 yrs
7%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -9.93
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Roman Kopylov -0.21
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Roman Kopylov 0.14
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Ateba Gautier 0.17
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Roman Kopylov 4.78
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ateba Gautier -0.14
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ateba Gautier 1.33
3%
Head absorption rate
Roman Kopylov 59%
3%
Fights in last 2 years
Ateba Gautier 5
2%
← pushes toward Ateba Gautier pushes toward Roman Kopylov →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Ateba Gautier

Win Streak
5
Finish Rate
80%
Avg Duration
5.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 206 cm
Stance: Switch

Roman Kopylov

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
W DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Ateba Gautier
ADVANTAGE
Roman Kopylov
Striking Accuracy
39.6%
+9.0%
48.6%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.74
+1.33
4.06
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.36
+2.43
4.78
Striking Defense
54.7%
+2.7%
52.0%
Takedown Accuracy
41.0%
+4.0%
45.0%
Takedown Defense
71.9%
+6.5%
78.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.77
+0.11
0.66
Avg Control Time (sec)
68.28
+2.15
70.43
Strikes Per Round
14.00
+5.01
19.02
Head Strike %
66.9%
+0.8%
66.1%
Body Strike %
21.1%
+2.1%
19.0%
Leg Strike %
12.0%
+2.9%
14.8%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+40.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
80.0%
+60.0%
20.0%