Back
Drew Dober
28-15-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Lightweight
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
14-2-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Chris Duncan 'The Problem'
52.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
44.7% 55.3%
Chris Duncan
LightGBM
48.5% 51.5%
Chris Duncan
Logistic (Core)
35.6% 64.4%
Chris Duncan
CatBoost
44.5% 55.5%
Chris Duncan
Ensemble
49.5% 50.5%
Chris Duncan
No Age · CatBoost
44.2% 55.8%
Chris Duncan
No Age · Ensemble
44.0% 56.0%
Chris Duncan
No Age · LightGBM
42.4% 57.6%
Chris Duncan
No Age · Logistic (Core)
35.5% 64.5%
Chris Duncan
No Age · XGBoost
41.7% 58.3%
Chris Duncan
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
55.3% 44.7%
Drew Dober
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
55.4% 44.6%
Drew Dober
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
56.1% 43.9%
Drew Dober
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
36.9% 63.1%
Chris Duncan
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
47.2% 52.8%
Chris Duncan
With Odds · CatBoost
46.7% 53.3%
Chris Duncan
With Odds · Ensemble
52.9% 47.1%
Drew Dober
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
47.1% 52.9%
Chris Duncan
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
35.6% 64.4%
Chris Duncan
With Odds · XGBoost
43.1% 56.9%
Chris Duncan
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
42%
Decision
33%
KO / TKO
25%
Submission
Decision42.3%
KO / TKO32.7%
Submission24.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.6%
Round 230.6%
Round 3+16.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 58% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Drew Dober
Chris Duncan
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +27
17%
Age
Drew Dober 38.1 yrs
11%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Chris Duncan -1.87
9%
Age
Chris Duncan 33.5 yrs
8%
Avg takedowns attempted
Chris Duncan 3.12
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Drew Dober 1.78
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Chris Duncan 3.74
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Drew Dober 0.14
4%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Chris Duncan 322
3%
Distance strike defense
Chris Duncan 56%
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Drew Dober -0.24
3%
Striking defense
Chris Duncan 53%
2%
Head absorption rate
Drew Dober 68%
2%
← pushes toward Drew Dober pushes toward Chris Duncan →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Drew Dober

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
L KO
L KO
L DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Chris Duncan

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
7.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W SUB
W DEC
W SUB
W SUB
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Drew Dober
ADVANTAGE
Chris Duncan
Striking Accuracy
43.7%
+1.9%
45.6%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.46
+0.34
3.80
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.33
+0.41
3.74
Striking Defense
55.6%
+2.5%
53.1%
Takedown Accuracy
30.2%
+8.8%
39.1%
Takedown Defense
63.4%
+2.5%
60.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.33
+0.07
0.26
Avg Control Time (sec)
57.09
+19.72
76.81
Strikes Per Round
16.79
+1.09
17.88
Head Strike %
60.3%
+3.2%
63.5%
Body Strike %
23.3%
+2.6%
20.6%
Leg Strike %
16.5%
+0.6%
15.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+40.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
60.0%