Oban Elliott
"The Welsh Gangster"
12-3-0
VS
Michael Oliveira
"PQD"
9-0-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
40.7%
59.3%
Michael Oliveira
LightGBM
currently viewing
40.6%
59.4%
Michael Oliveira
Logistic (Core)
52.1%
47.9%
Oban Elliott
CatBoost
49.8%
50.2%
Michael Oliveira
Ensemble
44.2%
55.8%
Michael Oliveira
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
49%
Decision
36%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Oban Elliott
Michael Oliveira
23%
14%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Oban Elliott
pushes toward Michael Oliveira →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Oban Elliott
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
SUB
L
DEC
W
KO
W
DEC
Height:
183 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Michael Oliveira
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
Height:
185 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
198 cm
Stance:
Orthodox