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Vanessa Demopoulos
"Lil Monster"
11-8-0
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Women's Strawweight
Yazmin Jauregui
11-2-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Yazmin Jauregui
72.0% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
28.5% 71.5%
Yazmin Jauregui
LightGBM
34.4% 65.6%
Yazmin Jauregui
Logistic (Core)
22.9% 77.1%
Yazmin Jauregui
CatBoost
32.3% 67.7%
Yazmin Jauregui
Ensemble
27.1% 72.9%
Yazmin Jauregui
market-margin__xgb-full
77.4% 22.6%
Vanessa Demopoulos
No Age · CatBoost
42.2% 57.8%
Yazmin Jauregui
No Age · Ensemble
39.9% 60.1%
Yazmin Jauregui
No Age · LightGBM
45.7% 54.3%
Yazmin Jauregui
No Age · Logistic (Core)
29.7% 70.3%
Yazmin Jauregui
No Age · XGBoost
40.8% 59.2%
Yazmin Jauregui
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
34.4% 65.6%
Yazmin Jauregui
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
28.7% 71.3%
Yazmin Jauregui
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
31.1% 68.9%
Yazmin Jauregui
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
24.5% 75.5%
Yazmin Jauregui
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
30.4% 69.6%
Yazmin Jauregui
With Odds · CatBoost
25.0% 75.0%
Yazmin Jauregui
With Odds · Ensemble
24.1% 75.9%
Yazmin Jauregui
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
28.0% 72.0%
Yazmin Jauregui
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
22.9% 77.1%
Yazmin Jauregui
With Odds · XGBoost
22.9% 77.1%
Yazmin Jauregui
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
66%
Decision
19%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision66.3%
KO / TKO18.7%
Submission15.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 150.2%
Round 229.7%
Round 3+20.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 34% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Vanessa Demopoulos
Yazmin Jauregui
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
44%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
15%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -2.37
7%
Age
Yazmin Jauregui 27.6 yrs
4%
Age
Vanessa Demopoulos 38.0 yrs
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Vanessa Demopoulos -0.48
2%
Market line movement diff
Matchup
2%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +10.43
2%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +6
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Vanessa Demopoulos 0.22
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Yazmin Jauregui 4.07
2%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Yazmin Jauregui -0.46
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Vanessa Demopoulos 5.00
1%
Takedown defense
Vanessa Demopoulos 47%
1%
← pushes toward Vanessa Demopoulos pushes toward Yazmin Jauregui →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Vanessa Demopoulos

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
12.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
L SUB
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 157 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 150 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Yazmin Jauregui

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
8.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
L KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 160 cm
Weight: 115 lbs
Reach: 163 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Vanessa Demopoulos
ADVANTAGE
Yazmin Jauregui
Striking Accuracy
39.7%
+1.7%
41.4%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.23
+1.44
4.67
Strikes Absorbed/Min
5.00
+0.93
4.07
Striking Defense
43.9%
+10.7%
54.6%
Takedown Accuracy
24.3%
+8.4%
32.6%
Takedown Defense
47.2%
+22.7%
69.8%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.10
+0.10
0.20
Avg Control Time (sec)
68.84
+7.11
75.94
Strikes Per Round
16.58
+4.24
20.83
Head Strike %
63.5%
+1.4%
62.0%
Body Strike %
23.2%
+3.3%
19.9%
Leg Strike %
13.3%
+4.8%
18.1%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%