Nathaniel Wood
"The Prospect"
22-6-0
VS
Mairon Santos
"The Legend"
17-1-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
35.5%
64.5%
Mairon Santos
LightGBM
33.1%
66.9%
Mairon Santos
Logistic (Core)
39.0%
61.0%
Mairon Santos
CatBoost
currently viewing
40.2%
59.8%
Mairon Santos
Ensemble
31.2%
68.8%
Mairon Santos
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
58%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 42%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Nathaniel Wood
Mairon Santos
21%
10%
8%
7%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Nathaniel Wood
pushes toward Mairon Santos →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Nathaniel Wood
Win Streak
4
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Mairon Santos
Win Streak
4
Finish Rate
50%
Avg Duration
11.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Nathaniel Wood
ADVANTAGE
Mairon Santos
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate