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Nick Klein
"Blue Collar"
6-3-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-10-31
UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. Kropschot
Middleweight
Joseph Kropschot
"The Land Animal"
8-3-0
Thin UFC data
RECENCY-HEAVY · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Nick Klein 'Blue Collar'
51.4% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
53.9% 46.1%
Nick Klein
LightGBM
51.4% 48.6%
Nick Klein
Logistic (Core)
48.7% 51.3%
Joseph Kropschot
CatBoost
50.0% 50.0%
Nick Klein
Ensemble
50.9% 49.1%
Nick Klein
No Age · CatBoost
48.0% 52.0%
Joseph Kropschot
No Age · Ensemble
51.3% 48.7%
Nick Klein
No Age · LightGBM
51.6% 48.4%
Nick Klein
No Age · Logistic (Core)
49.3% 50.7%
Joseph Kropschot
No Age · XGBoost
55.1% 44.9%
Nick Klein
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
49.6% 50.4%
Joseph Kropschot
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
52.2% 47.8%
Nick Klein
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
54.2% 45.8%
Nick Klein
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
47.9% 52.1%
Joseph Kropschot
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost currently viewing
51.4% 48.6%
Nick Klein
With Odds · CatBoost
52.0% 48.0%
Nick Klein
With Odds · Ensemble
57.0% 43.0%
Nick Klein
With Odds · LightGBM
53.6% 46.4%
Nick Klein
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
48.7% 51.3%
Joseph Kropschot
With Odds · XGBoost
54.7% 45.3%
Nick Klein
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
41%
Decision
33%
KO / TKO
26%
Submission
Decision40.7%
KO / TKO33.4%
Submission25.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.6%
Round 230.4%
Round 3+13.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 59% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Nick Klein
Joseph Kropschot
Elo rating edge
Matchup -45
18%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Nick Klein 9
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Nick Klein 4.20
5%
Last 2 avg fight time
Nick Klein 447.50
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Joseph Kropschot
5%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -2
4%
Elo rating
Joseph Kropschot 1,500
4%
Fights per year
Joseph Kropschot 0
4%
Distance strike defense
Nick Klein 59%
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Nick Klein 0.42
3%
Elo rating
Nick Klein 1,455
3%
Age
Nick Klein 31.1 yrs
3%
Head absorption rate
Nick Klein 66%
3%
Striking defense
Nick Klein 51%
3%
← pushes toward Nick Klein pushes toward Joseph Kropschot →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Nick Klein

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
7.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Joseph Kropschot

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A
Head-to-Head Stats
Nick Klein
ADVANTAGE
Joseph Kropschot
Striking Accuracy
47.2%
+47.2%
0.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.43
+2.43
0.00
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.77
+2.77
0.00
Striking Defense
50.9%
+50.9%
0.0%
Takedown Accuracy
35.5%
+35.5%
0.0%
Takedown Defense
63.0%
+63.0%
0.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.17
+0.17
0.00
Avg Control Time (sec)
88.53
+88.53
0.00
Strikes Per Round
13.34
+13.34
0.00
Head Strike %
58.4%
+58.4%
0.0%
Body Strike %
20.6%
+20.6%
0.0%
Leg Strike %
21.0%
+21.0%
0.0%