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Chad Anheliger
"The Monster"
13-8-0
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Bantamweight
Steven Koslow
"Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow"
6-1-0
Thin UFC data
RECENCY-HEAVY · LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Steven Koslow 'Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow'
64.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
30.1% 69.9%
Steven Koslow
LightGBM
39.9% 60.1%
Steven Koslow
Logistic (Core)
35.7% 64.3%
Steven Koslow
CatBoost
40.9% 59.1%
Steven Koslow
Ensemble
33.8% 66.2%
Steven Koslow
No Age · CatBoost
50.3% 49.7%
Chad Anheliger
No Age · Ensemble
43.2% 56.8%
Steven Koslow
No Age · LightGBM
52.5% 47.5%
Chad Anheliger
No Age · Logistic (Core)
44.6% 55.4%
Steven Koslow
No Age · XGBoost
52.5% 47.5%
Chad Anheliger
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
40.1% 59.9%
Steven Koslow
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
33.0% 67.0%
Steven Koslow
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
36.1% 63.9%
Steven Koslow
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core) currently viewing
35.1% 64.9%
Steven Koslow
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
30.2% 69.8%
Steven Koslow
With Odds · CatBoost
45.8% 54.2%
Steven Koslow
With Odds · Ensemble
40.8% 59.2%
Steven Koslow
With Odds · LightGBM
44.8% 55.2%
Steven Koslow
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
35.7% 64.3%
Steven Koslow
With Odds · XGBoost
43.6% 56.4%
Steven Koslow
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
52%
Decision
26%
KO / TKO
21%
Submission
Decision52.4%
KO / TKO26.2%
Submission21.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.6%
Round 231.1%
Round 3+16.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 48% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Chad Anheliger
Steven Koslow
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +10.14
24%
Age
Chad Anheliger 39.9 yrs
13%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +14
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Chad Anheliger -1.66
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Steven Koslow 3.65
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.07
5%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.16
4%
Fights per year
Chad Anheliger 1.85
3%
Age
Steven Koslow 29.7 yrs
3%
Reach edge
Matchup -12.7 cm
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Steven Koslow -0.46
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Steven Koslow 7
2%
Elo rating
Chad Anheliger 1,484
2%
Fights in last 2 years
Chad Anheliger 1
2%
← pushes toward Chad Anheliger pushes toward Steven Koslow →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Chad Anheliger

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
14.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W DEC
L SUB
L DEC
W KO
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 163 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Steven Koslow

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
14.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Switch
Head-to-Head Stats
Chad Anheliger
ADVANTAGE
Steven Koslow
Striking Accuracy
45.2%
+0.7%
44.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.99
+0.22
2.77
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.79
+0.57
3.35
Striking Defense
54.7%
+1.4%
53.2%
Takedown Accuracy
37.4%
+3.1%
40.5%
Takedown Defense
47.6%
+14.9%
62.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.23
+0.02
0.21
Avg Control Time (sec)
81.99
+1.25
80.74
Strikes Per Round
15.56
+0.18
15.38
Head Strike %
64.5%
+1.3%
63.2%
Body Strike %
18.3%
+2.2%
20.5%
Leg Strike %
17.2%
+0.9%
16.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+40.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
0.0%