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Bilal Hasan
8-0-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Flyweight
Luis Gurule
"Grim"
10-2-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Bilal Hasan
69.0% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
73.7% 26.3%
Bilal Hasan
LightGBM
69.7% 30.3%
Bilal Hasan
Logistic (Core)
76.1% 23.9%
Bilal Hasan
CatBoost
73.1% 26.9%
Bilal Hasan
Ensemble
74.8% 25.2%
Bilal Hasan
No Age · CatBoost
65.8% 34.2%
Bilal Hasan
No Age · Ensemble
66.9% 33.1%
Bilal Hasan
No Age · LightGBM
65.6% 34.4%
Bilal Hasan
No Age · Logistic (Core)
68.8% 31.2%
Bilal Hasan
No Age · XGBoost
64.5% 35.5%
Bilal Hasan
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
72.9% 27.1%
Bilal Hasan
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
73.2% 26.8%
Bilal Hasan
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
69.0% 31.0%
Bilal Hasan
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
76.5% 23.5%
Bilal Hasan
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
71.5% 28.5%
Bilal Hasan
With Odds · CatBoost
56.1% 43.9%
Bilal Hasan
With Odds · Ensemble
53.5% 46.5%
Bilal Hasan
With Odds · LightGBM
59.2% 40.8%
Bilal Hasan
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
76.1% 23.9%
Bilal Hasan
With Odds · XGBoost
58.2% 41.8%
Bilal Hasan
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
55%
Decision
30%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
Decision54.7%
KO / TKO29.6%
Submission15.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 155.1%
Round 231.0%
Round 3+14.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Bilal Hasan
Luis Gurule
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -7.66
14%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 78
13%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.04
9%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.23
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Luis Gurule -3.68
7%
Age
Bilal Hasan 25.3 yrs
4%
Age
Luis Gurule 33.0 yrs
4%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup 0.31
4%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -4
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Bilal Hasan 2.84
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Luis Gurule 4.81
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Bilal Hasan 448
2%
Distance strike defense
Bilal Hasan 58%
2%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Bilal Hasan 8
2%
← pushes toward Bilal Hasan pushes toward Luis Gurule →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Bilal Hasan

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
7.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Luis Gurule

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
11.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
L DEC
L KO
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 163 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Bilal Hasan
ADVANTAGE
Luis Gurule
Striking Accuracy
43.1%
+0.6%
42.6%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.96
+0.46
4.43
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.20
+1.61
4.81
Striking Defense
53.7%
+2.5%
56.2%
Takedown Accuracy
42.0%
+14.3%
27.7%
Takedown Defense
62.5%
+5.0%
67.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.40
+0.31
0.10
Avg Control Time (sec)
77.78
+15.45
62.33
Strikes Per Round
17.70
+2.50
20.21
Head Strike %
60.5%
+10.2%
70.7%
Body Strike %
24.9%
+10.7%
14.2%
Leg Strike %
14.6%
+0.5%
15.1%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+80.0%
20.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
100.0%
+100.0%
0.0%