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Gable Steveson
3-0-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Heavyweight
Sean Sharaf
"The Smoke"
4-1-0
Thin UFC data
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Gable Steveson
75.6% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
76.0% 24.0%
Gable Steveson
LightGBM
75.6% 24.4%
Gable Steveson
Logistic (Core)
79.2% 20.8%
Gable Steveson
CatBoost currently viewing
75.6% 24.4%
Gable Steveson
Ensemble
78.3% 21.7%
Gable Steveson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
32%
Decision
53%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision32.1%
KO / TKO53.2%
Submission14.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 164.5%
Round 224.7%
Round 3+10.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 68% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Gable Steveson
Sean Sharaf
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -6.89
19%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.91
17%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 70
16%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.05
6%
Age
Gable Steveson 26.3 yrs
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Gable Steveson 1.83
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Sean Sharaf 5
3%
Age
Sean Sharaf 33.2 yrs
3%
Distance strike defense
Sean Sharaf 49%
2%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 26%
2%
Striker anti-wrestling edge
Matchup 0.14
2%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup 0.26
2%
Striking accuracy
Gable Steveson 52%
1%
Fights per year
Gable Steveson 0
1%
← pushes toward Gable Steveson pushes toward Sean Sharaf →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Gable Steveson

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
2.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 249 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Sean Sharaf

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
8.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 252 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Gable Steveson
ADVANTAGE
Sean Sharaf
Striking Accuracy
51.9%
+7.7%
44.2%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.16
+0.20
4.36
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.83
+4.74
7.56
Striking Defense
56.1%
+9.3%
46.8%
Takedown Accuracy
34.8%
+5.1%
29.7%
Takedown Defense
62.5%
EVEN
62.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.41
+0.25
0.16
Avg Control Time (sec)
72.22
+5.27
77.49
Strikes Per Round
17.27
+1.07
18.35
Head Strike %
62.6%
+4.5%
67.1%
Body Strike %
22.4%
+2.2%
20.3%
Leg Strike %
15.0%
+2.3%
12.6%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+100.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
100.0%
+100.0%
0.0%