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Gable Steveson
3-0-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Heavyweight
Sean Sharaf
"The Smoke"
4-1-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Gable Steveson
77.0% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Sean Sharaf 'The Smoke' won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:12
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
75.0% 25.0%
Gable Steveson
LightGBM
76.0% 24.0%
Gable Steveson
Logistic (Core)
78.2% 21.8%
Gable Steveson
CatBoost
75.1% 24.9%
Gable Steveson
Ensemble
77.0% 23.0%
Gable Steveson
market-margin__xgb-full
84.4% 15.6%
Gable Steveson
No Age · CatBoost
70.7% 29.3%
Gable Steveson
No Age · Ensemble
73.6% 26.4%
Gable Steveson
No Age · LightGBM
70.9% 29.1%
Gable Steveson
No Age · Logistic (Core)
71.4% 28.6%
Gable Steveson
No Age · XGBoost
69.3% 30.7%
Gable Steveson
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
77.0% 23.0%
Gable Steveson
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
79.4% 20.6%
Gable Steveson
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
77.0% 23.0%
Gable Steveson
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
78.5% 21.5%
Gable Steveson
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
77.1% 22.9%
Gable Steveson
With Odds · CatBoost
81.5% 18.5%
Gable Steveson
With Odds · Ensemble
82.3% 17.7%
Gable Steveson
With Odds · LightGBM
81.8% 18.2%
Gable Steveson
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
78.2% 21.8%
Gable Steveson
With Odds · XGBoost
82.0% 18.0%
Gable Steveson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
34%
Decision
52%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision34.0%
KO / TKO52.0%
Submission14.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 166.0%
Round 223.3%
Round 3+10.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 66% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Gable Steveson
Sean Sharaf
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
17%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
16%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
11%
Strikes absorbed/min
Sean Sharaf
6%
Age
Sean Sharaf
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
5%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Sean Sharaf
4%
Age
Gable Steveson
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Gable Steveson
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Gable Steveson
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
2%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
2%
Distance strike defense
Sean Sharaf
2%
← pushes toward Gable Steveson pushes toward Sean Sharaf →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Gable Steveson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 249 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Sean Sharaf

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L KO
L KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 252 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Orthodox