Jean Silva
"Lord"
16-3-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Featherweight
Jose Delgado
10-2-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Jose Delgado
53.2% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Jean Silva 'Lord' won
Submission · Round 3 · 2:57
How It Ends
47%
Decision
40%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision47.1%
KO / TKO40.0%
Submission12.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 146.3%
Round 234.7%
Round 3+19.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Jean Silva
Jose Delgado
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
36%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
16%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
12%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
3%
Age
Jose Delgado
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Jose Delgado
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jean Silva
2%
Fights in last 2 years
Jose Delgado
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Jean Silva
2%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jose Delgado
2%
Striking accuracy
Jose Delgado
2%
Distance strike defense
Jean Silva
1%
Grappler vs striker mismatch
Matchup
1%
Pressure effectiveness edge
Matchup
1%
← pushes toward Jean Silva pushes toward Jose Delgado →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Jean Silva

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
L KO
W SUB
W KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Jose Delgado

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
W KO
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Switch