Dustin Jacoby
"The Hanyak"
21-9-1
VS
2026-07-25
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr
Light Heavyweight
Muhammad Said
9-0-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Muhammad Said
59.9% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
41%
Decision
46%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision40.7%
KO / TKO45.7%
Submission13.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.5%
Round 227.4%
Round 3+20.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 59% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Dustin Jacoby
Muhammad Said
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
18%
Age
Dustin Jacoby
13%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
12%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Dustin Jacoby
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Dustin Jacoby
4%
Fights per year
Dustin Jacoby
3%
Age
Muhammad Said
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Muhammad Said
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Muhammad Said
2%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Dustin Jacoby
2%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
2%
Head absorption rate
Muhammad Said
2%
Head-strike accuracy
Dustin Jacoby
2%
← pushes toward Dustin Jacoby pushes toward Muhammad Said →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Dustin Jacoby

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
W KO
W KO
L KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Muhammad Said

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A