Ryan Gandra
"Problema"
8-1-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Middleweight
Zach Reese
"Savage"
10-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Ryan Gandra 'Problema'
61.9% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
31%
Decision
44%
KO / TKO
25%
Submission
Decision31.0%
KO / TKO44.5%
Submission24.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.5%
Round 236.9%
Round 3+13.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 69% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Ryan Gandra
Zach Reese
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Zach Reese
16%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
8%
Strikes absorbed/min
Ryan Gandra
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ryan Gandra
5%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Ryan Gandra
5%
Last 2 avg fight time
Ryan Gandra
4%
Head absorption rate
Zach Reese
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
4%
Age
Ryan Gandra
4%
Fights in last 2 years
Zach Reese
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Zach Reese
3%
Fights per year
Ryan Gandra
3%
Round 1 strike output
Zach Reese
2%
← pushes toward Ryan Gandra pushes toward Zach Reese →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Ryan Gandra

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Zach Reese

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L DEC
W SUB
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Switch