Gable Steveson
3-0-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Heavyweight
Elisha Ellison
"The Snack Panther"
5-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Gable Steveson
61.9% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
42%
Decision
41%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision42.0%
KO / TKO41.4%
Submission16.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 163.9%
Round 224.4%
Round 3+11.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 58% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Gable Steveson
Elisha Ellison
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
10%
Age
Gable Steveson
8%
Avg takedowns attempted
Elisha Ellison
7%
Age
Elisha Ellison
7%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Elisha Ellison
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Gable Steveson
6%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
6%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Gable Steveson
5%
Last 2 avg fight time
Elisha Ellison
5%
Round 1 strike output
Elisha Ellison
4%
Head absorption rate
Elisha Ellison
3%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
3%
Distance strike defense
Elisha Ellison
3%
Head absorption rate
Gable Steveson
3%
← pushes toward Gable Steveson pushes toward Elisha Ellison →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Gable Steveson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 249 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Elisha Ellison

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 238 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox