Back
Wes Schultz
"Party Time"
8-2-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-08-22
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Middleweight
Jackson McVey
"The Moose"
6-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Wes Schultz 'Party Time'
63.5% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
64.4% 35.6%
Wes Schultz
LightGBM currently viewing
63.5% 36.5%
Wes Schultz
Logistic (Core)
48.6% 51.4%
Jackson McVey
CatBoost
56.1% 43.9%
Wes Schultz
Ensemble
61.0% 39.0%
Wes Schultz
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
35%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
30%
Submission
Decision35.1%
KO / TKO35.3%
Submission29.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 155.9%
Round 234.3%
Round 3+9.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 65% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Wes Schultz
Jackson McVey
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Wes Schultz -0.92
15%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.55
12%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.03
8%
Strikes absorbed/min
Wes Schultz 2.06
6%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 21
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Wes Schultz 3.34
5%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Wes Schultz 0.35
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jackson McVey 1.64
4%
Age
Jackson McVey 27.4 yrs
3%
Age
Wes Schultz 30.0 yrs
3%
Elo rating
Jackson McVey 1,480
3%
Distance strike defense
Wes Schultz 59%
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Jackson McVey 8
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Wes Schultz 1.18
2%
← pushes toward Wes Schultz pushes toward Jackson McVey →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Wes Schultz

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
50%
Avg Duration
7.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L KO
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Jackson McVey

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
4.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L SUB
L SUB
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Wes Schultz
ADVANTAGE
Jackson McVey
Striking Accuracy
45.7%
+8.6%
54.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
1.75
+1.79
3.54
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.06
+0.42
2.48
Striking Defense
50.7%
+2.3%
48.3%
Takedown Accuracy
22.8%
+12.7%
35.5%
Takedown Defense
54.4%
+4.3%
50.1%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.34
+0.04
0.30
Avg Control Time (sec)
70.17
+13.03
83.20
Strikes Per Round
11.27
+5.03
16.30
Head Strike %
61.2%
+0.6%
61.7%
Body Strike %
23.4%
+3.2%
26.5%
Leg Strike %
15.5%
+3.7%
11.8%
Last 5 Win Rate
50.0%
+16.7%
33.3%
Last 5 Finish Rate
50.0%
+16.7%
33.3%