Wes Schultz
"Party Time"
8-2-0
VS
2026-08-22
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Middleweight
Jackson McVey
"The Moose"
6-2-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Jackson McVey 'The Moose'
51.3% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Jackson McVey 'The Moose' won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:13
How It Ends
33%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
33%
Submission
Decision32.9%
KO / TKO34.2%
Submission32.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 153.0%
Round 236.1%
Round 3+10.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 67% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Wes Schultz
Jackson McVey
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Wes Schultz
14%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
9%
Strikes absorbed/min
Wes Schultz
7%
Age
Jackson McVey
5%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Jackson McVey
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Jackson McVey
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Wes Schultz
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Wes Schultz
3%
Distance strike defense
Wes Schultz
3%
Head absorption rate
Wes Schultz
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Wes Schultz
3%
Age
Wes Schultz
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Wes Schultz
3%
← pushes toward Wes Schultz pushes toward Jackson McVey →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Wes Schultz

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W SUB
L KO
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Jackson McVey

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W SUB
L SUB
L SUB
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Southpaw