Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
16-3-0
VS
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
23-3-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
73.4%
26.6%
Benoit Saint Denis
LightGBM
currently viewing
70.0%
30.0%
Benoit Saint Denis
Logistic (Core)
66.0%
34.0%
Benoit Saint Denis
CatBoost
70.9%
29.1%
Benoit Saint Denis
Ensemble
73.0%
27.0%
Benoit Saint Denis
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
41%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
24%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 59%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Benoit Saint Denis
Paddy Pimblett
10%
8%
8%
8%
7%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Benoit Saint Denis
pushes toward Paddy Pimblett →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Benoit Saint Denis
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
W
KO
W
KO
W
SUB
W
SUB
Height:
180 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
185 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Paddy Pimblett
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
L
DEC
W
KO
W
SUB
W
DEC
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
185 cm
Stance:
Orthodox