Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
16-3-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
23-3-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Benoit Saint Denis 'God of War'
66.0% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
41%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
24%
Submission
Decision41.2%
KO / TKO34.9%
Submission23.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 145.5%
Round 234.8%
Round 3+19.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 59% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Benoit Saint Denis
Paddy Pimblett
Net striking dominance
Matchup
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Avg control time
Benoit Saint Denis
6%
Last 2 avg fight time
Benoit Saint Denis
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Paddy Pimblett
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Benoit Saint Denis
5%
Striking accuracy
Benoit Saint Denis
5%
Age
Benoit Saint Denis
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Paddy Pimblett
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Paddy Pimblett
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
3%
Elo rating
Paddy Pimblett
3%
← pushes toward Benoit Saint Denis pushes toward Paddy Pimblett →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Benoit Saint Denis

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W KO
W KO
W SUB
W SUB
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Paddy Pimblett

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L DEC
W KO
W SUB
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox