Diyar Nurgozhay
10-2-0
VS
2026-08-08
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Light Heavyweight
Bruno Lopes
"Brunao"
14-2-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Diyar Nurgozhay
71.9% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
48%
Decision
38%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision48.5%
KO / TKO37.8%
Submission13.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 155.3%
Round 232.4%
Round 3+12.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 52% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Diyar Nurgozhay
Bruno Lopes
Net striking dominance
Matchup
22%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Bruno Lopes
11%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Diyar Nurgozhay
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
7%
Age
Bruno Lopes
4%
Age
Diyar Nurgozhay
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Bruno Lopes
4%
Round 1 strike output
Bruno Lopes
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Diyar Nurgozhay
3%
Fights per year
Diyar Nurgozhay
2%
Head absorption rate
Bruno Lopes
2%
Distance strike defense
Bruno Lopes
2%
Striking accuracy
Diyar Nurgozhay
2%
← pushes toward Diyar Nurgozhay pushes toward Bruno Lopes →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Diyar Nurgozhay

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
L SUB
L SUB
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Bruno Lopes

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
L KO
W DEC
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox