Diyar Nurgozhay
10-2-0
VS
Bruno Lopes
"Brunao"
14-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
74.6%
25.4%
Diyar Nurgozhay
LightGBM
73.5%
26.5%
Diyar Nurgozhay
Logistic (Core)
currently viewing
72.6%
27.4%
Diyar Nurgozhay
CatBoost
71.9%
28.1%
Diyar Nurgozhay
Ensemble
73.8%
26.2%
Diyar Nurgozhay
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
48%
Decision
38%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 52%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Diyar Nurgozhay
Bruno Lopes
18%
10%
8%
7%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Diyar Nurgozhay
pushes toward Bruno Lopes →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Diyar Nurgozhay
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
DEC
L
SUB
L
SUB
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Bruno Lopes
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
KO
L
KO
W
DEC
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox