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Kelvin Gastelum
21-10-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Middleweight
Yousri Belgaroui
9-3-0
Thin UFC data
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Yousri Belgaroui
67.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
22.7% 77.3%
Yousri Belgaroui
LightGBM
30.4% 69.6%
Yousri Belgaroui
Logistic (Core)
34.8% 65.2%
Yousri Belgaroui
CatBoost currently viewing
32.9% 67.1%
Yousri Belgaroui
Ensemble
26.0% 74.0%
Yousri Belgaroui
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
50%
Decision
38%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision49.9%
KO / TKO37.6%
Submission12.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.1%
Round 227.8%
Round 3+16.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 50% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Kelvin Gastelum
Yousri Belgaroui
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.45
18%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +19
12%
Age
Yousri Belgaroui 34.3 yrs
7%
Age
Kelvin Gastelum 34.9 yrs
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kelvin Gastelum -0.33
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.03
5%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 20
5%
Reach edge
Matchup -20.3 cm
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Yousri Belgaroui 1.93
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Yousri Belgaroui -0.17
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -26%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kelvin Gastelum 2.40
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Yousri Belgaroui 1.93
3%
Distance strike defense
Yousri Belgaroui 65%
2%
← pushes toward Kelvin Gastelum pushes toward Yousri Belgaroui →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Kelvin Gastelum

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
12.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
L SUB
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Yousri Belgaroui

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
12.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
Height: 198 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Kelvin Gastelum
ADVANTAGE
Yousri Belgaroui
Striking Accuracy
43.3%
+14.5%
57.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.37
+1.75
5.12
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.80
+1.87
1.93
Striking Defense
54.9%
+6.9%
61.8%
Takedown Accuracy
39.5%
+1.6%
41.1%
Takedown Defense
60.7%
+1.2%
59.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.23
+0.30
0.52
Avg Control Time (sec)
58.41
+5.66
64.07
Strikes Per Round
16.30
+5.00
21.30
Head Strike %
61.2%
+2.5%
63.6%
Body Strike %
20.7%
+0.2%
20.4%
Leg Strike %
18.2%
+2.2%
15.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+60.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+100.0%
100.0%